SC Oțelul Galați 2:3 FC Corvinul Hunedoara: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 21/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

SC Oțelul Galați Home 2.10 xG

FC Corvinul Hunedoara Away 2.59 xG

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

SC Oțelul Galați were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. FC Corvinul Hunedoara won 3–2. The biggest difference was FC Corvinul Hunedoara's attack: 2.59 xG against 1.32 projected (+1.27). SC Oțelul Galați produced 2.10 xG against 1.54 projected (+0.56).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Oțelul Galați: 41%
Draw: 29%
FC Corvinul Hunedoara: 30% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Oțelul Galați 1.54 2.10 +0.56

FC Corvinul Hunedoara 1.32 2.59 +1.27

FC Corvinul Hunedoara produced 1.27 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Oțelul Galați FC Corvinul Hunedoara

Shots: 25; 18
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 14; 13
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Oțelul Galați

1.05 xG created 1.73 xGA

D 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Dinamo București
D 1.60 created, 0.65 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 0.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 2.65 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 0.48 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 0.20 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj

FC Corvinul Hunedoara

1.60 xG created 1.37 xGA

D 1.59 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 3.84 created, 1.17 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
D 1.29 created, 1.35 conceded against UTA Arad
D 0.91 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 1.35 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.60 created, 1.07 conceded against Universitatea Craiova

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged7 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Oțelul Galați against FC Corvinul Hunedoara before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.15	+20.8%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+16.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.36	+11.9%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	2.38	+11.8%	Won
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	2.75	+7.2%	Won
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	1.40	+6.5%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați to score	1.30	+5.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați	40.7%	36.4%	+4.3 pp	2.46
Draw	29.1%	29.7%	−0.6 pp	3.43
FC Corvinul Hunedoara	30.2%	33.9%	−3.8 pp	3.32

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați to score	81.2%	72.3%	+8.9 pp	1.23
SC Oțelul Galați not to score	18.8%	27.7%	−8.9 pp	5.33
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	76.1%	66.3%	+9.8 pp	1.31
FC Corvinul Hunedoara not to score	23.9%	33.7%	−9.8 pp	4.18
Both teams to score	63.4%	50.0%	+13.4 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.6%	50.0%	−13.4 pp	2.74
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	47.1%	39.2%	+7.8 pp	2.12
SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal	52.9%	60.8%	−7.8 pp	1.89
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	39.0%	33.7%	+5.2 pp	2.57
FC Corvinul Hunedoara at most 1 goal	61.0%	66.3%	−5.2 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	82.0%	68.7%	+13.3 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.0%	31.3%	−13.3 pp	5.56
Over 2.5 goals	56.2%	43.7%	+12.5 pp	1.78
Under 2.5 goals	43.8%	56.3%	−12.5 pp	2.28

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Oțelul Galați sample: 20 matches
FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample: 8 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.