FC Corvinul Hunedoara 0:1 Universitatea Craiova: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Corvinul Hunedoara Home 0.60 xG

Universitatea Craiova Away 1.07 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Corvinul Hunedoara's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.72). Universitatea Craiova produced 1.07 xG against 1.60 projected (−0.53).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Corvinul Hunedoara: 29%
Draw: 29%
Universitatea Craiova: 42% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Corvinul Hunedoara 1.32 0.60 -0.72

Universitatea Craiova 1.60 1.07 -0.53

FC Corvinul Hunedoara produced 0.72 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Corvinul Hunedoara Universitatea Craiova

Shots: 11; 12
On target: 4; 6
Inside the box: 5; 6
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Corvinul Hunedoara

1.81 xG created 1.33 xGA

D 1.90 created, 0.86 conceded against Sepsi OSK
D 1.59 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 3.84 created, 1.17 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
D 1.29 created, 1.35 conceded against UTA Arad
D 0.91 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 1.35 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti

Universitatea Craiova

2.79 xG created 0.95 xGA

W 4.14 created, 0.25 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 3.37 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 0.65 created, 1.60 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 4.58 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Voluntari
D 1.95 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Rapid București
W 2.05 created, 0.66 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Corvinul Hunedoara against Universitatea Craiova before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	3.40	+32.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+17.5%	Lost
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	1.50	+14.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.95	+12.1%	Lost
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to win	3.80	+10.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	+7.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Corvinul Hunedoara	29.1%	23.5%	+5.6 pp	3.44
Draw	28.6%	27.0%	+1.6 pp	3.49
Universitatea Craiova	42.3%	49.5%	−7.2 pp	2.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score	76.0%	62.5%	+13.5 pp	1.32
FC Corvinul Hunedoara not to score	24.0%	37.5%	−13.5 pp	4.16
Universitatea Craiova to score	82.2%	78.3%	+3.9 pp	1.22
Universitatea Craiova not to score	17.8%	21.7%	−3.9 pp	5.63
Both teams to score	64.1%	50.0%	+14.1 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	35.9%	50.0%	−14.1 pp	2.78
FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals	38.9%	27.7%	+11.2 pp	2.57
FC Corvinul Hunedoara at most 1 goal	61.1%	72.3%	−11.2 pp	1.64
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals	49.0%	48.5%	+0.5 pp	2.04
Universitatea Craiova at most 1 goal	51.0%	51.5%	−0.5 pp	1.96
Over 1.5 goals	82.8%	72.3%	+10.4 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.2%	27.7%	−10.4 pp	5.80
Over 2.5 goals	57.5%	48.7%	+8.8 pp	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.5%	51.3%	−8.8 pp	2.35

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample: 7 matches
Universitatea Craiova sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.