Monday, 26/10/2026 at 19:00
Full timeSepsi OSK 0:5 Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Universitatea Craiova's attack: 4.06 xG against 1.70 projected (+2.36). Sepsi OSK produced 0.00 xG against 1.15 projected (−1.15).
The model against the result
- Sepsi OSK
- 23%
- Draw
- 28%
- Universitatea Craiova
- 49% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Universitatea Craiova produced 2.36 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 0
- 25
- On target
- 0
- 12
- Inside the box
- 0
- 17
Recent form
1.17 xG created 1.98 xGA
- W 0.65 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 1.19 created, 3.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.41 created, 1.89 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 0.72 created, 2.50 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.97 created, 1.95 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 1.05 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
2.15 xG created 0.75 xGA
- D 1.95 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 2.05 created, 0.66 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 1.07 created, 0.60 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 3.14 created, 0.61 conceded against FCSB
- W 3.33 created, 0.47 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- W 1.37 created, 0.78 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi OSK 2+ goals | 4.00 | +28.7% | Lost |
| Sepsi OSK to win | 5.25 | +19.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +17.3% | Lost |
| Sepsi OSK to score | 1.62 | +14.7% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.90 | +9.1% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +6.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +5.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi OSK | 22.8% | 17.1% | +5.7 pp | 4.38 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 23.0% | +4.9 pp | 3.58 |
| Universitatea Craiova | 49.2% | 59.9% | −10.6 pp | 2.03 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sepsi OSK to score | 71.0% | 57.7% | +13.3 pp | 1.41 |
| Sepsi OSK not to score | 29.0% | 42.3% | −13.3 pp | 3.45 |
| Universitatea Craiova to score | 84.3% | 82.8% | +1.5 pp | 1.19 |
| Universitatea Craiova not to score | 15.7% | 17.2% | −1.5 pp | 6.36 |
| Both teams to score | 61.4% | 48.5% | +12.9 pp | 1.63 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.6% | 51.5% | −12.9 pp | 2.59 |
| Sepsi OSK 2+ goals | 32.2% | 23.4% | +8.8 pp | 3.11 |
| Sepsi OSK at most 1 goal | 67.8% | 76.6% | −8.8 pp | 1.47 |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 52.6% | 53.7% | −1.1 pp | 1.90 |
| Universitatea Craiova at most 1 goal | 47.4% | 46.3% | +1.1 pp | 2.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | 73.1% | +8.6 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.3% | 26.9% | −8.6 pp | 5.48 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.9% | 50.0% | +5.9 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 50.0% | −5.9 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 12 matches
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.