Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:00
7d 15h to kick-offFK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc – Universitatea Craiova
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- 15%
- Draw
- 26%
- Universitatea Craiova
- 59%
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | Draw | Universitatea Craiova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.54 | 3.82 | 1.71 |
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 1 outcome.
-
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- Model
- 15.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.6%
- Probability gap
- −1.3 pp
- Edge
- −15.9%
- Fair odds
- 6.54
- Market odds
- 5.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.87
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.8%
- Probability gap
- +3.4 pp
- Edge
- +4.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.82
- Market odds
- 4.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.01
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
-
Universitatea Craiova
- Model
- 58.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 60.7%
- Probability gap
- −2.2 pp
- Edge
- −12.2%
- Fair odds
- 1.71
- Market odds
- 1.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.79
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.8%
Outcomes with value
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Universitatea Craiova
59% Universitatea Craiova to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 13th
- Universitatea Craiova attack v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Universitatea Craiova defence v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.28 vs -1.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.90 – 1.82
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc v Universitatea Craiova
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.74 · 16th | (better) 2.45 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.95 · 12th | (better) 1.11 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -1.22 · 16th | (better) +1.34 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.55 · 16th | (better) 2.03 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.10 | (better) +1.29 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
- 38%
- Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 1:2
- 11.7%
- 0:2
- 11.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample
- 20 matches
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Universitatea Craiova
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.