Monday, 21/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Petrolul Ploieşti 2:0 FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
FC Petrolul Ploieşti were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc's attack: 0.57 xG against 1.16 projected (−0.59). FC Petrolul Ploieşti produced 2.15 xG against 1.85 projected (+0.30).
The model against the result
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 53% What happened
- Draw
- 26%
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- 21%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc produced 0.59 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 8
- On target
- 7
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.07
Recent form
1.31 xG created 3.08 xGA
- L 0.25 created, 4.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.23 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.26 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 2.02 created, 3.33 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 0.87 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- D 1.24 created, 6.31 conceded against FCSB
0.97 xG created 1.91 xGA
- L 0.55 created, 1.21 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- D 1.34 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- L 1.01 created, 1.81 conceded against FC Botoșani
- L 0.96 created, 2.02 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 1.16 created, 2.86 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.78 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Dinamo București
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals | 4.00 | +30.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +16.0% | Lost |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score | 1.57 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +5.0% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 1.80 | +2.9% | Won |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 1.17 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti | 52.6% | 55.1% | −2.5 pp | 1.90 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp | 3.78 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc | 20.9% | 18.7% | +2.2 pp | 4.78 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score | 86.5% | 81.1% | +5.5 pp | 1.16 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti not to score | 13.5% | 18.9% | −5.5 pp | 7.43 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score | 71.4% | 58.9% | +12.5 pp | 1.40 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc not to score | 28.6% | 41.1% | −12.5 pp | 3.50 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | 50.0% | +13.3 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.7% | 50.0% | −13.3 pp | 2.72 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals | 57.1% | 51.5% | +5.7 pp | 1.75 |
| FC Petrolul Ploieşti at most 1 goal | 42.9% | 48.5% | −5.7 pp | 2.33 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals | 32.7% | 23.4% | +9.3 pp | 3.06 |
| FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc at most 1 goal | 67.3% | 76.6% | −9.3 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 75.0% | +9.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 25.0% | −9.0 pp | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | 51.3% | +8.3 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 48.7% | −8.3 pp | 2.48 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.