FCSB 2:2 FC Petrolul Ploieşti: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 20:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FCSB Home 6.31 xG

FC Petrolul Ploieşti Away 1.24 xG

22 FCSB had the better chances, but it finished level

FCSB were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FCSB's attack: 6.31 xG against 2.18 projected (+4.13).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FCSB: 61%
Draw: 23% What happened
FC Petrolul Ploieşti: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FCSB 2.18 6.31 +4.13

FC Petrolul Ploieşti 1.12 1.24 +0.12

FCSB produced 4.13 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FCSB FC Petrolul Ploieşti

Shots: 28; 11
On target: 10; 4
Inside the box: 21; 4
xG per shot: 0.23; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FCSB

1.88 xG created 1.76 xGA

D 4.29 created, 1.97 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
D 0.72 created, 1.31 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 2.37 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.74 created, 1.54 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
L 1.45 created, 1.08 conceded against UTA Arad
L 0.68 created, 3.26 conceded against FC Dinamo București

FC Petrolul Ploieşti

1.22 xG created 2.11 xGA

L 0.68 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 0.25 created, 4.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 2.23 created, 2.04 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 1.26 created, 1.31 conceded against FC Rapid București
W 2.02 created, 3.33 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
W 0.87 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FCSB: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FCSB against FC Petrolul Ploieşti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals	4.50	+39.6%	Won
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score	1.73	+21.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+19.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.67	+10.3%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+5.1%	Won
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to win	6.50	+2.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FCSB	61.4%	64.9%	−3.5 pp	1.63
Draw	22.9%	21.3%	+1.6 pp	4.37
FC Petrolul Ploieşti	15.7%	13.8%	+1.9 pp	6.36

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FCSB to score	90.6%	86.4%	+4.1 pp	1.10
FCSB not to score	9.4%	13.6%	−4.1 pp	10.58
FC Petrolul Ploieşti to score	70.4%	53.7%	+16.7 pp	1.42
FC Petrolul Ploieşti not to score	29.6%	46.3%	−16.7 pp	3.38
Both teams to score	65.0%	50.0%	+15.0 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.0%	50.0%	−15.0 pp	2.85
FCSB 2+ goals	66.4%	62.5%	+3.9 pp	1.51
FCSB at most 1 goal	33.6%	37.5%	−3.9 pp	2.98
FC Petrolul Ploieşti 2+ goals	31.0%	20.8%	+10.2 pp	3.22
FC Petrolul Ploieşti at most 1 goal	69.0%	79.2%	−10.2 pp	1.45
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	78.3%	+9.3 pp	1.14
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	21.7%	−9.3 pp	8.04
Over 2.5 goals	66.2%	56.3%	+9.9 pp	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	33.8%	43.7%	−9.9 pp	2.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FCSB sample: 20 matches
FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.