Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK IMT Beograd 0:1 FK Železničar Pančevo
FK IMT Beograd were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. FK Železničar Pančevo won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK IMT Beograd's attack: 1.03 xG against 1.40 projected (−0.37).
The model against the result
- FK IMT Beograd
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 24% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK IMT Beograd produced 0.37 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 6
- On target
- 4
- 1
- Inside the box
- 8
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.17
Recent form
1.54 xG created 0.96 xGA
- W 0.61 created, 0.04 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- D 3.87 created, 0.39 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 0.60 created, 1.22 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- D 1.53 created, 1.43 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 1.37 created, 1.33 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 1.28 created, 1.33 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
3.00 xG created 0.66 xGA
- W 5.14 created, 0.47 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- L 0.66 created, 1.08 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.42 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.27 created, 0.80 conceded against FK Partizan
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged1 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to win | 2.63 | +18.0% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 3.40 | +17.4% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 1.53 | +13.7% | Won |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 2.50 | +4.8% | Lost |
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 1.30 | +1.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.20 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd | 44.9% | 35.5% | +9.5 pp | 2.23 |
| Draw | 31.5% | 29.1% | +2.4 pp | 3.18 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo | 23.6% | 35.5% | −11.9 pp | 4.24 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 78.1% | 72.3% | +5.8 pp | 1.28 |
| FK IMT Beograd not to score | 21.9% | 27.7% | −5.8 pp | 4.58 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 65.5% | 72.3% | −6.9 pp | 1.53 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 34.5% | 27.7% | +6.9 pp | 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 53.7% | −0.6 pp | 1.89 |
| Both teams not to score | 47.0% | 46.3% | +0.6 pp | 2.13 |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 41.9% | 37.5% | +4.4 pp | 2.38 |
| FK IMT Beograd at most 1 goal | 58.1% | 62.5% | −4.4 pp | 1.72 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals | 25.8% | 39.2% | −13.4 pp | 3.87 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 74.2% | 60.8% | +13.4 pp | 1.35 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | 68.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 31.3% | −4.4 pp | 3.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 42.9% | +0.6 pp | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 57.1% | −0.6 pp | 1.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.