Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Partizan 1:0 FK Novi Pazar
FK Partizan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 61%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Partizan's attack: 0.51 xG against 2.26 projected (−1.75). FK Novi Pazar produced 1.58 xG against 1.22 projected (+0.36).
The model against the result
- FK Partizan
- 61% What happened
- Draw
- 22%
- FK Novi Pazar
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Partizan produced 1.75 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 11
- On target
- 2
- 2
- Inside the box
- 6
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.14
Recent form
2.61 xG created 1.50 xGA
- L 4.12 created, 0.74 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.22 created, 1.40 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.71 created, 1.32 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.16 created, 1.96 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 2.02 created, 1.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 3.40 created, 2.02 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
1.96 xG created 1.60 xGA
- W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 1.08 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- D 0.60 created, 0.58 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.40 created, 0.60 conceded against FK Zemun
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 1.53 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +4.3% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | +0.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | +0.5% | Lost |
| FK Partizan to score | 1.10 | +0.5% | Won |
| FK Partizan to win | 1.65 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan | 60.7% | 54.8% | +5.9 pp | 1.65 |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.1% | −2.7 pp | 4.46 |
| FK Novi Pazar | 16.9% | 20.1% | −3.2 pp | 5.93 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan to score | 91.3% | 85.5% | +5.8 pp | 1.10 |
| FK Partizan not to score | 8.7% | 14.5% | −5.8 pp | 11.52 |
| FK Novi Pazar to score | 73.2% | 68.7% | +4.5 pp | 1.37 |
| FK Novi Pazar not to score | 26.8% | 31.3% | −4.5 pp | 3.74 |
| Both teams to score | 68.0% | 60.8% | +7.3 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.0% | 39.2% | −7.3 pp | 3.13 |
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 68.3% | 60.8% | +7.5 pp | 1.46 |
| FK Partizan at most 1 goal | 31.7% | 39.2% | −7.5 pp | 3.15 |
| FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals | 34.9% | 35.5% | −0.6 pp | 2.87 |
| FK Novi Pazar at most 1 goal | 65.1% | 64.5% | +0.6 pp | 1.54 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 89.3% | 83.0% | +6.3 pp | 1.12 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10.7% | 17.0% | −6.3 pp | 9.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | 64.5% | +5.1 pp | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.4% | 35.5% | −5.1 pp | 3.29 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.