Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offFK Radnički 1923 – FK Radnik Surdulica
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Radnički 1923
- 51%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 21%
| FK Radnički 1923 | Draw | FK Radnik Surdulica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.97 | 3.61 | 4.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Radnički 1923
51% FK Radnički 1923 to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 7th
- FK Radnički 1923 attack v FK Radnik Surdulica defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- FK Radnički 1923 defence v FK Radnik Surdulica attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs +0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.74 – 1.11
- FK Radnički 1923 v FK Radnik Surdulica
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Radnički 1923 | FK Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.14 · 4th | 1.62 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.35 · 4th | 1.46 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.79 · 5th | +0.16 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.92 · 3rd | 1.39 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | +0.22 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FK Radnički 1923 clean sheet
- 30%
- FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički 1923 sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Radnički 1923
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Radnik Surdulica
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.