Basel 1:3 FC St. Gallen 1879: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

Basel Home 1.22 xG · 10 shots

FC St. Gallen 1879 Away 2.00 xG · 24 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC St. Gallen 1879 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was FC St. Gallen 1879's attack: 2.00 xG against 1.61 projected (+0.39).

Goals

9' Aliou Balde FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.30 xG chance 0–1
43' Žan Celar (pen.) Basel · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
65' Christian Witzig FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
85' Carlo Boukhalfa FC St. Gallen 1879 · 0.24 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Basel: 28%
Draw: 29%
FC St. Gallen 1879: 44% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Basel 1.28 1.22 -0.06

FC St. Gallen 1879 1.61 2.00 +0.39

FC St. Gallen 1879 produced 0.39 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Basel FC St. Gallen 1879

Shots: 10; 24
On target: 2; 9
Inside the box: 6; 14
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.16; 1.45
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.58
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.43 for Basel and 2.04 for FC St. Gallen 1879.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

34 shots · 3.28 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Basel
FC St. Gallen 1879
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Basel

1.20 xG created 1.47 xGA

W 1.09 created, 0.64 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.64 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Zürich
D 1.28 created, 1.77 conceded against Young Boys
L 0.94 created, 1.80 conceded against FC Sion
L 0.31 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Lugano
W 1.93 created, 1.62 conceded against FC Luzern

FC St. Gallen 1879

1.95 xG created 1.43 xGA

D 3.24 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Luzern
L 2.88 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Thun
L 1.80 created, 2.23 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
W 1.37 created, 0.90 conceded against Servette FC
L 1.29 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.14 created, 1.41 conceded against FC Lugano

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Basel: 0 won · 1 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Basel against FC St. Gallen 1879 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	3.00	+29.7%	Lost
Basel not to score	5.00	+26.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	7.00	+24.0%	Lost
Basel at most 1 goal	1.91	+20.0%	Won
Draw	4.00	+14.4%	Lost
Both teams not to score	3.00	+10.1%	Lost
FC St. Gallen 1879 to win	2.45	+7.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Basel	27.6%	38.3%	−10.6 pp	3.62
Draw	28.6%	23.4%	+5.2 pp	3.50
FC St. Gallen 1879	43.8%	38.3%	+5.5 pp	2.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Basel to score	74.7%	81.1%	−6.4 pp	1.34
Basel not to score	25.3%	18.9%	+6.4 pp	3.96
FC St. Gallen 1879 to score	82.5%	81.1%	+1.5 pp	1.21
FC St. Gallen 1879 not to score	17.5%	18.9%	−1.5 pp	5.73
Both teams to score	63.3%	68.7%	−5.5 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.7%	31.3%	+5.5 pp	2.72
Basel 2+ goals	37.2%	51.5%	−14.3 pp	2.69
Basel at most 1 goal	62.8%	48.5%	+14.3 pp	1.59
FC St. Gallen 1879 2+ goals	49.5%	51.5%	−1.9 pp	2.02
FC St. Gallen 1879 at most 1 goal	50.5%	48.5%	+1.9 pp	1.98
Over 1.5 goals	82.3%	86.7%	−4.4 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	17.7%	13.3%	+4.4 pp	5.65
Over 2.5 goals	56.8%	69.2%	−12.5 pp	1.76
Under 2.5 goals	43.2%	30.8%	+12.5 pp	2.31

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Basel sample: 20 matches
FC St. Gallen 1879 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.