FC Vaduz 1:2 FC Thun: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

FC Vaduz Home 2.77 xG · 17 shots

FC Thun Away 1.70 xG · 15 shots

12 The result went against the chances

FC Vaduz were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. FC Thun won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Vaduz's attack: 2.77 xG against 1.79 projected (+0.98).

Goals

33' Furkan Dursun FC Thun · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
49' Nils Reichmuth FC Thun · 0.24 xG chance 0–2
73' Marcel Monsberger FC Vaduz · 0.58 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Vaduz: 39%
Draw: 26%
FC Thun: 34% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Vaduz 1.79 2.77 +0.98

FC Thun 1.67 1.70 +0.03

FC Vaduz produced 0.98 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Vaduz FC Thun

Shots: 17; 15
On target: 3; 5
Inside the box: 14; 10
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.13
Open play xG: 2.00; 1.70
Set-piece xG: 0.66; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.64 for FC Vaduz and 1.87 for FC Thun.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

32 shots · 4.56 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Vaduz
FC Thun
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Vaduz

1.58 xG created 2.02 xGA

L 1.75 created, 2.81 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.64 created, 2.19 conceded against Young Boys
W 2.31 created, 2.99 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
L 1.10 created, 2.42 conceded against FC Luzern
W 1.65 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 1.03 created, 1.18 conceded against FC Zürich

FC Thun

1.59 xG created 1.90 xGA

L 0.64 created, 1.09 conceded against Basel
W 1.26 created, 2.88 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
D 1.58 created, 0.86 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 2.33 created, 2.78 conceded against FC Sion
L 1.67 created, 2.26 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
L 2.05 created, 1.52 conceded against Servette FC

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Vaduz against FC Thun before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+4.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	3.30	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Vaduz	39.4%	39.9%	−0.4 pp	2.54
Draw	26.1%	23.4%	+2.7 pp	3.83
FC Thun	34.5%	36.7%	−2.2 pp	2.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Vaduz to score	85.6%	82.8%	+2.8 pp	1.17
FC Vaduz not to score	14.4%	17.2%	−2.8 pp	6.92
FC Thun to score	83.7%	82.8%	+0.9 pp	1.19
FC Thun not to score	16.3%	17.2%	−0.9 pp	6.15
Both teams to score	72.9%	68.7%	+4.2 pp	1.37
Both teams not to score	27.1%	31.3%	−4.2 pp	3.69
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	55.2%	53.7%	+1.6 pp	1.81
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	44.8%	46.3%	−1.6 pp	2.23
FC Thun 2+ goals	51.6%	53.7%	−2.1 pp	1.94
FC Thun at most 1 goal	48.4%	46.3%	+2.1 pp	2.07
Over 1.5 goals	89.3%	87.7%	+1.7 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.7%	12.3%	−1.7 pp	9.38
Over 2.5 goals	69.4%	72.0%	−2.5 pp	1.44
Under 2.5 goals	30.6%	28.0%	+2.5 pp	3.27

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Vaduz sample: 8 matches
FC Thun sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

FC Vaduz has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.