Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 17h to kick-offFC Vaduz – Servette FC
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Vaduz
- 33%
- Draw
- 29%
- Servette FC
- 38%
| FC Vaduz | Draw | Servette FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.99 | 3.48 | 2.64 |
- Total goals
- 2.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
38% Servette FC to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 11th
- Servette FC attack v FC Vaduz defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 7th
- Servette FC defence v FC Vaduz attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.30 vs -0.08
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.43 – 1.52
- FC Vaduz v Servette FC
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Vaduz | Servette FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.66 · 7th | 1.41 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 2.00 · 9th | (better) 1.53 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 9th | (better) -0.12 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.18 · 9th | (better) 1.30 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.08 | -0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Servette FC clean sheet
- 21%
- Servette FC 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Vaduz sample
- 9 matches
- Servette FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Vaduz
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Servette FC
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- FC Vaduz has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.