Grasshopper Club Zürich 2:5 FC Sion: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Swiss Super League

Grasshopper Club Zürich Home 1.10 xG · 8 shots

FC Sion Away 3.48 xG · 16 shots

25 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Sion were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 5–2. The biggest difference was FC Sion's attack: 3.48 xG against 1.58 projected (+1.90). Grasshopper Club Zürich produced 1.10 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.29).

Goals

12' Ylyas Chouaref FC Sion · 0.24 xG chance 0–1
42' Samuel Krasniqi (pen.) Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
49' Giotto Morandi Grasshopper Club Zürich · 0.10 xG chance 2–1
63' Rilind Nivokazi FC Sion · 0.29 xG chance 2–2
69' Rilind Nivokazi FC Sion · 0.75 xG chance 2–3
82' Fode Sylla FC Sion · 0.26 xG chance 2–4
90' Josias Lukembila FC Sion · 0.59 xG chance 2–5

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Grasshopper Club Zürich: 31%
Draw: 29%
FC Sion: 40% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Grasshopper Club Zürich 1.39 1.10 -0.29

FC Sion 1.58 3.48 +1.90

FC Sion produced 1.90 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Grasshopper Club Zürich FC Sion

Shots: 8; 16
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 4; 12
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.22
Open play xG: 0.32; 2.53
Set-piece xG: 0.00; 1.02
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.32 for Grasshopper Club Zürich and 3.48 for FC Sion.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 4.69 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Grasshopper Club Zürich
FC Sion
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Grasshopper Club Zürich

2.41 xG created 1.81 xGA

L 1.83 created, 2.13 conceded against FC Lugano
L 0.97 created, 2.15 conceded against Servette FC
L 2.99 created, 2.31 conceded against FC Vaduz
W 2.23 created, 1.80 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
D 4.16 created, 0.77 conceded against FC Zürich
W 2.26 created, 1.67 conceded against FC Thun

FC Sion

2.22 xG created 1.25 xGA

W 2.83 created, 0.51 conceded against FC Luzern
W 2.81 created, 1.75 conceded against FC Vaduz
L 1.82 created, 0.67 conceded against FC Lugano
W 1.80 created, 0.94 conceded against Basel
W 2.78 created, 2.33 conceded against FC Thun
W 1.26 created, 1.29 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Grasshopper Club Zürich: 0 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Grasshopper Club Zürich against FC Sion before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Sion at most 1 goal	2.50	+28.8%	Lost
FC Sion not to score	7.00	+26.5%	Lost
Grasshopper Club Zürich to win	3.80	+18.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+11.1%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+8.4%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	6.50	+6.5%	Lost
Grasshopper Club Zürich to score	1.29	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Grasshopper Club Zürich	31.2%	24.6%	+6.6 pp	3.21
Draw	28.5%	24.6%	+4.0 pp	3.50
FC Sion	40.3%	50.9%	−10.6 pp	2.48

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Grasshopper Club Zürich to score	77.9%	73.1%	+4.8 pp	1.28
Grasshopper Club Zürich not to score	22.1%	26.9%	−4.8 pp	4.52
FC Sion to score	81.9%	86.4%	−4.5 pp	1.22
FC Sion not to score	18.1%	13.6%	+4.5 pp	5.53
Both teams to score	65.4%	62.5%	+2.9 pp	1.53
Both teams not to score	34.6%	37.5%	−2.9 pp	2.89
Grasshopper Club Zürich 2+ goals	41.5%	39.2%	+2.3 pp	2.41
Grasshopper Club Zürich at most 1 goal	58.5%	60.8%	−2.3 pp	1.71
FC Sion 2+ goals	48.5%	62.5%	−14.0 pp	2.06
FC Sion at most 1 goal	51.5%	37.5%	+14.0 pp	1.94
Over 1.5 goals	83.6%	85.4%	−1.8 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.4%	14.6%	+1.8 pp	6.10
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	65.2%	−6.3 pp	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	34.8%	+6.3 pp	2.43

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Grasshopper Club Zürich sample: 20 matches
FC Sion sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.