Servette FC 2:1 FC Vaduz: xG & match report · Swiss Super League

Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Swiss Super League

Servette FC Home 2.08 xG · 27 shots

FC Vaduz Away 0.26 xG · 6 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Servette FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Vaduz's attack: 0.26 xG against 1.28 projected (−1.02). Servette FC produced 2.08 xG against 1.76 projected (+0.32).

Goals

15' Thomas Lopes Servette FC · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
77' Lutfi Dalipi FC Vaduz · 0.12 xG chance 1–1
85' Kingstone Mutandwa Servette FC · 0.07 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Servette FC: 48% What happened
Draw: 27%
FC Vaduz: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Servette FC 1.76 2.08 +0.32

FC Vaduz 1.28 0.26 -1.02

FC Vaduz produced 1.02 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Servette FC FC Vaduz

Shots: 27; 6
On target: 12; 3
Inside the box: 12; 3
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.04
Open play xG: 1.59; 0.04
Set-piece xG: 0.50; 0.21
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.11 for Servette FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 2.35 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Servette FC
FC Vaduz
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Servette FC

1.29 xG created 1.59 xGA

L 1.81 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Lugano
L 0.90 created, 1.37 conceded against FC St. Gallen 1879
W 1.49 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
W 1.52 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Thun
L 0.54 created, 2.35 conceded against Young Boys
W 1.46 created, 1.07 conceded against FC Sion

FC Vaduz

1.99 xG created 1.62 xGA

W 2.31 created, 2.99 conceded against Grasshopper Club Zürich
L 1.10 created, 2.42 conceded against FC Luzern
W 1.65 created, 0.50 conceded against FC Lausanne-Sport
L 1.03 created, 1.18 conceded against FC Zürich
L 2.77 created, 1.70 conceded against FC Thun
W 3.08 created, 0.90 conceded against Basel

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 qualified edges flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Servette FC against FC Vaduz before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.70	+7.1%	Lost
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	1.67	+4.6%	Won
Draw	3.70	+0.9%	Lost
FC Vaduz not to score	4.00	+0.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Servette FC	47.5%	46.4%	+1.2 pp	2.10
Draw	27.3%	25.1%	+2.2 pp	3.67
FC Vaduz	25.2%	28.5%	−3.4 pp	3.97

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Servette FC to score	85.1%	84.2%	+0.9 pp	1.17
Servette FC not to score	14.9%	15.8%	−0.9 pp	6.72
FC Vaduz to score	74.8%	76.6%	−1.8 pp	1.34
FC Vaduz not to score	25.2%	23.4%	+1.8 pp	3.96
Both teams to score	65.1%	66.3%	−1.1 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	34.9%	33.7%	+1.1 pp	2.87
Servette FC 2+ goals	54.4%	55.7%	−1.4 pp	1.84
Servette FC at most 1 goal	45.6%	44.3%	+1.4 pp	2.19
FC Vaduz 2+ goals	37.2%	44.3%	−7.0 pp	2.69
FC Vaduz at most 1 goal	62.8%	55.7%	+7.0 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	84.4%	84.2%	+0.2 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.6%	15.8%	−0.2 pp	6.41
Over 2.5 goals	60.3%	65.2%	−4.8 pp	1.66
Under 2.5 goals	39.7%	34.8%	+4.8 pp	2.52

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Servette FC sample: 20 matches
FC Vaduz sample: 10 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.