Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 15h to kick-offDynamo Kyiv – Karpaty Lviv
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 56%
- Draw
- 27%
- Karpaty Lviv
- 17%
| Dynamo Kyiv | Draw | Karpaty Lviv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.78 | 3.73 | 5.84 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dynamo Kyiv
56% Dynamo Kyiv to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 8th
- Dynamo Kyiv attack v Karpaty Lviv defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- Dynamo Kyiv defence v Karpaty Lviv attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs +0.13
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.80 – 0.97
- Dynamo Kyiv v Karpaty Lviv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dynamo Kyiv | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.81 · 7th | (better) 1.90 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.94 · 4th | 1.59 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.87 · 4th | +0.30 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.02 · 3rd | 1.58 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | +0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet
- 35%
- Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dynamo Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Karpaty Lviv
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.