Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offDynamo Kyiv – Kudrivka
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 73%
- Draw
- 19%
- Kudrivka
- 8%
| Dynamo Kyiv | Draw | Kudrivka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.38 | 5.13 | 12.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dynamo Kyiv
73% Dynamo Kyiv to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 16th
- Dynamo Kyiv attack v Kudrivka defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 15th
- Dynamo Kyiv defence v Kudrivka attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -1.65
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.26 – 0.73
- Dynamo Kyiv v Kudrivka
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dynamo Kyiv | Kudrivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.81 · 7th | 0.86 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.94 · 4th | 2.50 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.87 · 4th | -1.65 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.02 · 3rd | 0.54 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | -1.65 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Dynamo Kyiv clean sheet
- 45%
- Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:1
- 10.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dynamo Kyiv
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Kudrivka
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.