xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Lahti expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 22 matches · updated 4 Oct

FC Lahti's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Lahti xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.80 xG per match
#2/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
39.65 22 matches
Defence
1.42 xGA per match
#4/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
31.29 22 matches
xG difference
+0.38 xGD per match
#4/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
+8.36 22 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.51 xPts per match
#4/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
33.18 vs 36 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 22 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

FC Lahti's underlying numbers are among the best in Veikkausliiga. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.38 per match, driven by elite shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 28 goals are 11.65 below 39.65 xG, while 33 points are 0.18 below 33.18 xPts — both over the 22 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.64 xG from penalties
28 39.65 -11.65 scored 11.65 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
21 31.29 -10.29 conceded 10.29 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
33 33.18 -0.18 0.18 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Lahti are 11.65 goals below their xG after 22 matches.

Goals
28
xG
39.65
Gap
-11.65
Sat 04/04 Fri 10/04 Sat 18/04 Sat 25/04 Sun 10/05 Mon 18/05 Sat 30/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 04/07 Sat 11/07 Mon 20/07 Sun 26/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Fri 21/08 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Fri 18/09 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +0.41 -0.41 -1.42 -0.06 -1.05 -1.30 -2.57 -2.83 -4.54 -5.90 -5.69 -7.15 -5.72 -7.08 -8.46 -8.35 -10.13 -9.84 -10.38 -10.44 -10.91 -11.65 +0.41 -0.82 -1.01 +1.36 -0.99 -0.25 -1.27 -0.26 -1.71 -1.36 +0.21 -1.46 +1.43 -1.36 -1.38 +0.11 -1.78 +0.29 -0.54 -0.06 -0.47 -0.74 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Lahti: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 FF Jaro 1 0.59 +0.41 +0.41
Fri 10/04 TPS 1 1.82 -0.82 -0.41
Sat 18/04 Inter Turku 0 1.01 -1.01 -1.42
Sat 25/04 AC Oulu 2 0.64 +1.36 -0.06
Sun 10/05 IFK Mariehamn 1 1.99 -0.99 -1.05
Mon 18/05 VPS 1 1.25 -0.25 -1.30
Sat 30/05 Ilves 5 6.27 -1.27 -2.57
Sat 13/06 SJK 2 2.26 -0.26 -2.83
Wed 17/06 IF Gnistan 0 1.71 -1.71 -4.54
Tue 23/06 TPS 0 1.36 -1.36 -5.90
Sat 27/06 AC Oulu 1 0.79 +0.21 -5.69
Sat 04/07 IF Gnistan 1 2.46 -1.46 -7.15
Sat 11/07 HJK 2 0.57 +1.43 -5.72
Mon 20/07 IFK Mariehamn 2 3.36 -1.36 -7.08
Sun 26/07 Ilves 0 1.38 -1.38 -8.46
Sat 01/08 FF Jaro 2 1.89 +0.11 -8.35
Sun 09/08 Inter Turku 0 1.78 -1.78 -10.13
Sun 16/08 KuPS 1 0.71 +0.29 -9.84
Fri 21/08 SJK 2 2.54 -0.54 -10.38
Tue 08/09 IFK Mariehamn 2 2.06 -0.06 -10.44
Sat 12/09 Ilves 1 1.47 -0.47 -10.91
Fri 18/09 FF Jaro 1 1.74 -0.74 -11.65

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Lahti xG trend

Current form +0.02 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 22 matches. The worst was against Inter Turku on Sun 09/08 (-1.24).

npxG · last 6
1.75
npxGA · last 6
1.73
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.35 Sat 04/04 +0.07 Fri 10/04 -0.09 Sat 18/04 +0.05 Sat 25/04 +1.72 Sun 10/05 +0.70 Mon 18/05 +3.13 Sat 30/05 -0.35 Sat 13/06 -0.72 Wed 17/06 +0.70 Tue 23/06 -0.41 Sat 27/06 +1.50 Sat 04/07 -0.28 Sat 11/07 +2.19 Mon 20/07 -0.38 Sun 26/07 +1.47 Sat 01/08 -1.24 Sun 09/08 -0.46 Sun 16/08 +0.36 Fri 21/08 +0.92 Tue 08/09 +0.30 Sat 12/09 +0.25 Fri 18/09 +0.41 season avg
FC Lahti: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 FF Jaro 0.58 0.93 -0.35 -0.35
Fri 10/04 TPS 1.82 1.75 +0.07 -0.14
Sat 18/04 Inter Turku 1.02 1.11 -0.09 -0.12
Sat 25/04 AC Oulu 0.74 0.69 +0.05 -0.08
Sun 10/05 IFK Mariehamn 1.99 0.27 +1.72 +0.28
Mon 18/05 VPS 1.25 0.55 +0.70 +0.35
Sat 30/05 Ilves 4.01 0.88 +3.13 +0.75
Sat 13/06 SJK 2.26 2.61 -0.35 +0.61
Wed 17/06 IF Gnistan 1.71 2.43 -0.72 +0.46
Tue 23/06 TPS 1.36 0.66 +0.70 +0.49
Sat 27/06 AC Oulu 0.76 1.17 -0.41 +0.40
Sat 04/07 IF Gnistan 2.46 0.96 +1.50 +0.50
Sat 11/07 HJK 0.57 0.85 -0.28 +0.44
Mon 20/07 IFK Mariehamn 2.60 0.41 +2.19 +0.56
Sun 26/07 Ilves 1.51 1.89 -0.38 +0.50
Sat 01/08 FF Jaro 1.89 0.42 +1.47 +0.56
Sun 09/08 Inter Turku 1.78 3.02 -1.24 +0.45
Sun 16/08 KuPS 0.71 1.17 -0.46 +0.40
Fri 21/08 SJK 2.55 2.19 +0.36 +0.40
Tue 08/09 IFK Mariehamn 2.07 1.15 +0.92 +0.43
Sat 12/09 Ilves 1.63 1.33 +0.30 +0.42
Fri 18/09 FF Jaro 1.74 1.49 +0.25 +0.41

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.68 npxG and 1.27 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 12 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 11 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.24 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · number 12 hardest of 12

  1. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  2. Ilves Away −0.22
  3. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  4. VPS Away +0.10
  5. SJK Away +0.02
  6. KuPS Home +0.50
  7. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  8. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  9. Ilves Away −0.22
  10. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  11. HJK Home +0.27
  12. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  13. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  14. TPS Home −0.08
  15. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  16. SJK Home +0.02
  17. Ilves Home −0.22
  18. KuPS Away +0.50
  19. VPS Home +0.10
  20. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  21. HJK Away +0.27
  22. AC Oulu Home −0.28
  23. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  24. TPS Away −0.08
  25. FF Jaro Away −0.38

Last 5

−0.24 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 11 hardest of 12

  1. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  2. Ilves Away −0.22
  3. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  4. VPS Away +0.10
  5. SJK Away +0.02

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Lahti shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. FC Lahti take 13.3 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #2 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #8 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.3 shots per match
#2/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
292 shots from 22 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#8/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
37.01 npxG from 292 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.8 shots per match
#3/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
215 shots allowed from 22 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#10/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
27.93 npxGA from 215 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 179 of 292 shots over 22 matches

Shots allowed, location

64% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 138 of 215 shots allowed over 22 matches

How the shot figures are made →

FC Lahti home and away xG

FC Lahti per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 13 12 9 with xG
xG / match 1.86 1.72
xGA / match 1.16 1.80
xGD / match +0.70 -0.08
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.69 1.25

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Lahti match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 10

Matches
10 9 with xG
xG / match
1.88
xGA / match
1.51
xGD / match
+0.38
Points
17 of 30
  1. Fri 18/09 FF Jaro H xG 1.74 xGA 1.49 xGD +0.25
  2. Sat 12/09 Ilves A xG 1.47 xGA 2.09 P xGD -0.62
  3. Tue 08/09 IFK Mariehamn H xG 2.06 xGA 1.15 xGD +0.91
  4. Mon 31/08 VPS A
  5. Fri 21/08 SJK A xG 2.54 xGA 2.19 xGD +0.35
  6. Sun 16/08 KuPS H xG 0.71 xGA 1.17 xGD -0.46
  7. Sun 09/08 Inter Turku A Weakest underlying xG 1.78 xGA 3.02 xGD -1.24
  8. Sat 01/08 FF Jaro H xG 1.89 xGA 0.42 xGD +1.47
  9. Sun 26/07 Ilves A xG 1.38 xGA 1.61 xGD -0.23
  10. Mon 20/07 IFK Mariehamn A Best underlying xG 3.36 P xGA 0.41 xGD +2.95

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.36. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Lahti in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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