IFK Mariehamn 1:0 TPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

IFK Mariehamn Home 0.95 xG

TPS Away 2.03 xG

10 The result went against the chances

TPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. IFK Mariehamn won 1–0. The biggest difference was IFK Mariehamn's attack: 0.95 xG against 1.39 projected (−0.44).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IFK Mariehamn: 26% What happened
Draw: 26%
TPS: 47%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IFK Mariehamn 1.39 0.95 -0.44

TPS 1.86 2.03 +0.17

IFK Mariehamn produced 0.44 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IFK Mariehamn TPS

Shots: 12; 17
On target: 3; 4
Inside the box: 4; 12
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IFK Mariehamn

1.61 xG created 1.81 xGA

L 2.08 created, 1.73 conceded against TPS
L 1.53 created, 2.04 conceded against Ilves
W 2.28 created, 0.85 conceded against SJK
W 1.47 created, 1.97 conceded against KuPS
W 1.15 created, 2.22 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.15 created, 2.06 conceded against FC Lahti

TPS

1.50 xG created 1.79 xGA

L 1.25 created, 2.36 conceded against HJK
W 1.73 created, 2.08 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
D 2.01 created, 1.69 conceded against KuPS
W 2.26 created, 0.97 conceded against VPS
D 1.03 created, 2.27 conceded against Inter Turku
D 0.70 created, 1.36 conceded against SJK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IFK Mariehamn: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IFK Mariehamn against TPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
TPS 2+ goals	2.10	+20.7%	Lost
TPS to win	2.45	+16.1%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+12.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+11.2%	Lost
TPS to score	1.25	+8.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+6.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Mariehamn	26.2%	35.4%	−9.2 pp	3.81
Draw	26.4%	26.6%	−0.2 pp	3.79
TPS	47.4%	38.0%	+9.4 pp	2.11

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IFK Mariehamn to score	77.8%	75.0%	+2.8 pp	1.28
IFK Mariehamn not to score	22.2%	25.0%	−2.8 pp	4.51
TPS to score	86.7%	75.0%	+11.7 pp	1.15
TPS not to score	13.3%	25.0%	−11.7 pp	7.51
Both teams to score	68.9%	57.7%	+11.2 pp	1.45
Both teams not to score	31.1%	42.3%	−11.2 pp	3.21
IFK Mariehamn 2+ goals	41.5%	42.3%	−0.8 pp	2.41
IFK Mariehamn at most 1 goal	58.5%	57.7%	+0.8 pp	1.71
TPS 2+ goals	57.5%	44.3%	+13.2 pp	1.74
TPS at most 1 goal	42.5%	55.7%	−13.2 pp	2.35
Over 1.5 goals	87.1%	76.6%	+10.5 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	12.9%	23.4%	−10.5 pp	7.76
Over 2.5 goals	65.1%	54.6%	+10.5 pp	1.54
Under 2.5 goals	34.9%	45.4%	−10.5 pp	2.86

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IFK Mariehamn sample: 20 matches
TPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.