xgEdge

Expected goals

TPS expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

TPS's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

TPS xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.50 xG per match
#9/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
31.50 21 matches
Defence
1.58 xGA per match
#8/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
33.21 21 matches
xG difference
-0.08 xGD per match
#8/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.71 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.32 xPts per match
#9/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
27.77 vs 32 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 21 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

TPS's underlying numbers sit close to the Veikkausliiga average. They rank #8 for xG difference at -0.08 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 24 goals are 7.50 below 31.50 xG, while 25 points are 2.77 below 27.77 xPts — both over the 21 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.29 xG from penalties
24 31.50 -7.50 scored 7.50 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
24 33.21 -9.21 conceded 9.21 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
25 27.77 -2.77 2.77 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

TPS are 7.50 goals below their xG after 21 matches.

Goals
24
xG
31.50
Gap
-7.50
Sat 04/04 Fri 10/04 Sat 18/04 Fri 24/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 16/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 04/07 Sat 11/07 Mon 20/07 Sun 26/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Fri 14/08 Sun 23/08 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 -0.10 +0.17 -0.14 +0.31 +0.71 -0.19 -1.14 -0.89 -1.55 -1.51 -2.86 -1.76 -1.74 -2.99 -1.72 -2.73 -1.99 -3.02 -3.72 -5.75 -7.50 -0.10 +0.27 -0.31 +0.45 +0.40 -0.90 -0.95 +0.25 -0.66 +0.04 -1.35 +1.10 +0.02 -1.25 +1.27 -1.01 +0.74 -1.03 -0.70 -2.03 -1.75 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
TPS: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 IFK Mariehamn 1 1.10 -0.10 -0.10
Fri 10/04 FC Lahti 2 1.73 +0.27 +0.17
Sat 18/04 SJK 2 2.31 -0.31 -0.14
Fri 24/04 IF Gnistan 1 0.55 +0.45 +0.31
Sat 02/05 FF Jaro 2 1.60 +0.40 +0.71
Sat 16/05 AC Oulu 0 0.90 -0.90 -0.19
Sat 13/06 Ilves 0 0.95 -0.95 -1.14
Wed 17/06 KuPS 1 0.75 +0.25 -0.89
Tue 23/06 FC Lahti 0 0.66 -0.66 -1.55
Sat 27/06 FF Jaro 3 2.96 +0.04 -1.51
Sat 04/07 SJK 1 2.35 -1.35 -2.86
Sat 11/07 AC Oulu 3 1.90 +1.10 -1.76
Mon 20/07 Ilves 1 0.98 +0.02 -1.74
Sun 26/07 HJK 0 1.25 -1.25 -2.99
Sat 01/08 IFK Mariehamn 3 1.73 +1.27 -1.72
Sun 09/08 KuPS 1 2.01 -1.01 -2.73
Fri 14/08 VPS 3 2.26 +0.74 -1.99
Sun 23/08 Inter Turku 0 1.03 -1.03 -3.02
Tue 08/09 SJK 0 0.70 -0.70 -3.72
Sat 12/09 IFK Mariehamn 0 2.03 -2.03 -5.75
Sat 19/09 Ilves 0 1.75 -1.75 -7.50

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

TPS xG trend

Current form +0.09 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 11 of 21 matches. The worst was against Ilves on Mon 20/07 (-2.32).

npxG · last 6
1.51
npxGA · last 6
1.42
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.45 Sat 04/04 -0.07 Fri 10/04 +1.35 Sat 18/04 -0.33 Fri 24/04 +0.80 Sat 02/05 -0.03 Sat 16/05 -0.56 Sat 13/06 -0.71 Wed 17/06 -0.70 Tue 23/06 +2.20 Sat 27/06 +0.15 Sat 04/07 +0.51 Sat 11/07 -2.32 Mon 20/07 -1.11 Sun 26/07 +0.11 Sat 01/08 +0.32 Sun 09/08 +0.54 Fri 14/08 -1.24 Sun 23/08 -0.66 Tue 08/09 +1.08 Sat 12/09 +0.49 Sat 19/09 +0.01 season avg
TPS: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 IFK Mariehamn 1.11 0.66 +0.45 +0.45
Fri 10/04 FC Lahti 1.75 1.82 -0.07 +0.19
Sat 18/04 SJK 2.31 0.96 +1.35 +0.58
Fri 24/04 IF Gnistan 0.55 0.88 -0.33 +0.35
Sat 02/05 FF Jaro 1.59 0.79 +0.80 +0.44
Sat 16/05 AC Oulu 0.85 0.88 -0.03 +0.36
Sat 13/06 Ilves 0.97 1.53 -0.56 +0.23
Wed 17/06 KuPS 0.75 1.46 -0.71 +0.11
Tue 23/06 FC Lahti 0.66 1.36 -0.70 +0.02
Sat 27/06 FF Jaro 2.97 0.77 +2.20 +0.24
Sat 04/07 SJK 2.35 2.20 +0.15 +0.23
Sat 11/07 AC Oulu 1.14 0.63 +0.51 +0.26
Mon 20/07 Ilves 0.97 3.29 -2.32 +0.06
Sun 26/07 HJK 1.25 2.36 -1.11 -0.03
Sat 01/08 IFK Mariehamn 1.96 1.85 +0.11 -0.02
Sun 09/08 KuPS 2.01 1.69 +0.32 +0.00
Fri 14/08 VPS 1.51 0.97 +0.54 +0.04
Sun 23/08 Inter Turku 1.03 2.27 -1.24 -0.04
Tue 08/09 SJK 0.70 1.36 -0.66 -0.07
Sat 12/09 IFK Mariehamn 2.03 0.95 +1.08 -0.01
Sat 19/09 Ilves 1.75 1.26 +0.49 +0.01

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.44 npxG and 1.43 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 9 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.03 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 9 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.03 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · number 9 hardest of 12

  1. Ilves Home −0.22
  2. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  3. SJK Home +0.02
  4. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  5. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  6. VPS Away +0.10
  7. KuPS Away +0.50
  8. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  9. HJK Away +0.27
  10. Ilves Home −0.22
  11. AC Oulu Home −0.28
  12. SJK Away +0.02
  13. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  14. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  15. KuPS Home +0.50
  16. Ilves Away −0.22
  17. VPS Home +0.10
  18. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  19. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  20. HJK Home +0.27
  21. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  22. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  23. SJK Home +0.02
  24. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  25. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75

Last 5

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 9 hardest of 12

  1. Ilves Home −0.22
  2. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  3. SJK Home +0.02
  4. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  5. Inter Turku Home +0.53

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

TPS shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. TPS take 13.0 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #4 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #10 for quality. 51% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.0 shots per match
#4/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
274 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#10/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
30.21 npxG from 274 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.6 shots per match
#8/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
265 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#4/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
29.94 npxGA from 265 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

51% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 141 of 274 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

57% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 151 of 265 shots allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

TPS home and away xG

TPS per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 13 11 with xG 12 10 with xG
xG / match 1.49 1.51
xGA / match 1.73 1.42
xGD / match -0.24 +0.09
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.22 1.43

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every TPS match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
25 21 with xG
xG / match
1.50
xGA / match
1.58
xGD / match
-0.08
Points
32 of 75
  1. Sat 19/09 Ilves H xG 1.75 xGA 2.78 P xGD -1.03
  2. Sat 12/09 IFK Mariehamn A Against the chances xG 2.03 xGA 0.95 xGD +1.08
  3. Tue 08/09 SJK H xG 0.70 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.66
  4. Mon 31/08 IF Gnistan A
  5. Sun 23/08 Inter Turku H xG 1.03 xGA 2.27 xGD -1.24
  6. Fri 14/08 VPS A xG 2.26 P xGA 0.97 xGD +1.29
  7. Sun 09/08 KuPS A xG 2.01 xGA 1.69 xGD +0.32
  8. Sat 01/08 IFK Mariehamn H xG 1.73 xGA 2.08 xGD -0.35
  9. Sun 26/07 HJK A xG 1.25 xGA 2.36 xGD -1.11
  10. Mon 20/07 Ilves H Weakest underlying xG 0.98 xGA 3.33 xGD -2.35
  11. Sat 11/07 AC Oulu H xG 1.90 P xGA 0.63 xGD +1.27
  12. Sat 04/07 SJK A xG 2.35 xGA 2.20 xGD +0.15
  13. Sat 27/06 FF Jaro H Best underlying xG 2.96 xGA 1.53 P xGD +1.43
  14. Tue 23/06 FC Lahti A xG 0.66 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.70
  15. Wed 17/06 KuPS H xG 0.75 xGA 1.36 xGD -0.61
  16. Sat 13/06 Ilves A xG 0.95 xGA 1.56 xGD -0.61
  17. Sat 30/05 VPS H
  18. Sat 23/05 Inter Turku A
  19. Sat 16/05 AC Oulu A xG 0.90 xGA 0.87 xGD +0.03
  20. Fri 08/05 HJK H
  21. Sat 02/05 FF Jaro A xG 1.60 xGA 1.55 P xGD +0.05
  22. Fri 24/04 IF Gnistan H xG 0.55 xGA 0.88 xGD -0.33
  23. Sat 18/04 SJK H xG 2.31 xGA 1.00 xGD +1.31
  24. Fri 10/04 FC Lahti H xG 1.73 xGA 1.82 xGD -0.09
  25. Sat 04/04 IFK Mariehamn A xG 1.10 xGA 0.66 xGD +0.44

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.33. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

TPS in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect