xgEdge

Expected goals

Ilves expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 23 matches · updated 1 Oct

Ilves's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Ilves xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.72 xG per match
#5/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
39.66 23 matches
Defence
1.94 xGA per match
#11/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
44.58 23 matches
xG difference
-0.21 xGD per match
#9/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.92 23 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.35 xPts per match
#8/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
30.94 vs 34 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 23 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Ilves's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Veikkausliiga. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.21 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 39 goals are 0.66 below 39.66 xG, while 31 points are 0.06 above 30.94 xPts — both over the 23 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 5.54 xG from penalties
39 39.66 -0.66 scored 0.66 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
35 44.58 -9.58 conceded 9.58 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
31 30.94 +0.06 0.06 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Ilves are 0.66 goals below their xG after 23 matches. The gap was widest at -2.22, against VPS on Sat 22/08.

Goals
39
xG
39.66
Gap
-0.66
Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Fri 24/04 Sat 02/05 Sat 16/05 Wed 20/05 Sat 23/05 Sat 30/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 04/07 Mon 20/07 Sun 26/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 22/08 Mon 31/08 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sat 19/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 -0.37 -0.91 +0.03 +0.69 +0.76 +1.69 +2.38 +2.90 +1.97 +1.41 +3.75 +4.35 +3.72 +0.69 +0.36 -0.25 -1.52 -1.56 -2.22 -1.94 -1.79 -0.88 -0.66 -0.37 -0.54 +0.94 +0.66 +0.07 +0.93 +0.69 +0.52 -0.93 -0.56 +2.34 +0.60 -0.63 -3.03 -0.33 -0.61 -1.27 -0.04 -0.66 +0.28 +0.15 +0.91 +0.22 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Ilves: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 KuPS 1 1.37 -0.37 -0.37
Sat 11/04 Inter Turku 1 1.54 -0.54 -0.91
Sat 18/04 IFK Mariehamn 2 1.06 +0.94 +0.03
Fri 24/04 VPS 2 1.34 +0.66 +0.69
Sat 02/05 SJK 1 0.93 +0.07 +0.76
Sat 16/05 HJK 2 1.07 +0.93 +1.69
Wed 20/05 Inter Turku 1 0.31 +0.69 +2.38
Sat 23/05 IF Gnistan 2 1.48 +0.52 +2.90
Sat 30/05 FC Lahti 0 0.93 -0.93 +1.97
Sat 13/06 TPS 1 1.56 -0.56 +1.41
Wed 17/06 FF Jaro 5 2.66 +2.34 +3.75
Tue 23/06 KuPS 3 2.40 +0.60 +4.35
Sat 27/06 SJK 2 2.63 -0.63 +3.72
Sat 04/07 FF Jaro 1 4.03 -3.03 +0.69
Mon 20/07 TPS 3 3.33 -0.33 +0.36
Sun 26/07 FC Lahti 1 1.61 -0.61 -0.25
Sun 02/08 AC Oulu 0 1.27 -1.27 -1.52
Sun 09/08 IFK Mariehamn 2 2.04 -0.04 -1.56
Sat 22/08 VPS 0 0.66 -0.66 -2.22
Mon 31/08 HJK 1 0.72 +0.28 -1.94
Tue 08/09 FF Jaro 2 1.85 +0.15 -1.79
Sat 12/09 FC Lahti 3 2.09 +0.91 -0.88
Sat 19/09 TPS 3 2.78 +0.22 -0.66

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Ilves xG trend

Current form -0.25 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 8 of 23 matches. The worst was against VPS on Fri 24/04 (-3.45).

npxG · last 6
1.17
npxGA · last 6
1.42
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +0.02 Sat 04/04 -0.09 Sat 11/04 -1.24 Sat 18/04 -3.45 Fri 24/04 -1.52 Sat 02/05 -0.92 Sat 16/05 -0.52 Wed 20/05 -0.05 Sat 23/05 -3.13 Sat 30/05 +0.56 Sat 13/06 +1.84 Wed 17/06 -2.39 Tue 23/06 -0.40 Sat 27/06 +2.91 Sat 04/07 +2.32 Mon 20/07 +0.38 Sun 26/07 +0.12 Sun 02/08 -0.25 Sun 09/08 -0.58 Sat 22/08 -1.12 Mon 31/08 +1.27 Tue 08/09 -0.30 Sat 12/09 -0.49 Sat 19/09 -0.31 season avg
Ilves: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 KuPS 1.37 1.35 +0.02 +0.02
Sat 11/04 Inter Turku 0.78 0.87 -0.09 -0.03
Sat 18/04 IFK Mariehamn 1.06 2.30 -1.24 -0.44
Fri 24/04 VPS 0.58 4.03 -3.45 -1.19
Sat 02/05 SJK 0.93 2.45 -1.52 -1.26
Sat 16/05 HJK 1.20 2.12 -0.92 -1.20
Wed 20/05 Inter Turku 0.31 0.83 -0.52 -1.10
Sat 23/05 IF Gnistan 0.72 0.77 -0.05 -0.97
Sat 30/05 FC Lahti 0.88 4.01 -3.13 -1.21
Sat 13/06 TPS 1.53 0.97 +0.56 -1.03
Wed 17/06 FF Jaro 2.67 0.83 +1.84 -0.77
Tue 23/06 KuPS 1.64 4.03 -2.39 -0.91
Sat 27/06 SJK 2.63 3.03 -0.40 -0.87
Sat 04/07 FF Jaro 4.03 1.12 +2.91 -0.60
Mon 20/07 TPS 3.29 0.97 +2.32 -0.40
Sun 26/07 FC Lahti 1.89 1.51 +0.38 -0.36
Sun 02/08 AC Oulu 1.59 1.47 +0.12 -0.33
Sun 09/08 IFK Mariehamn 1.28 1.53 -0.25 -0.32
Sat 22/08 VPS 0.57 1.15 -0.58 -0.34
Mon 31/08 HJK 0.73 1.85 -1.12 -0.38
Tue 08/09 FF Jaro 1.85 0.58 +1.27 -0.30
Sat 12/09 FC Lahti 1.33 1.63 -0.30 -0.30
Sat 19/09 TPS 1.26 1.75 -0.49 -0.31

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.48 npxG and 1.79 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 6 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 8 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.02 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · tied number 6 hardest of 12

  1. TPS Away −0.08
  2. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  3. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  4. HJK Home +0.27
  5. VPS Home +0.10
  6. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  7. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  8. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  9. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  10. TPS Away −0.08
  11. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  12. SJK Home +0.02
  13. KuPS Away +0.50
  14. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  15. TPS Home −0.08
  16. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  17. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  18. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  19. HJK Away +0.27
  20. AC Oulu Home −0.28
  21. SJK Away +0.02
  22. VPS Away +0.10
  23. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  24. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  25. KuPS Home +0.50

Last 5

+0.02 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 8 hardest of 12

  1. TPS Away −0.08
  2. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  3. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  4. HJK Home +0.27
  5. VPS Home +0.10

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Ilves shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. Ilves take 11.5 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #9 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #5 for quality. 65% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.5 shots per match
#9/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
265 shots from 23 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#5/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
34.12 npxG from 265 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.9 shots per match
#11/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
320 shots allowed from 23 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.13 npxGA per shot
#9/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
41.15 npxGA from 320 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

65% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 171 of 265 shots over 23 matches

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 195 of 320 shots allowed over 23 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Ilves home and away xG

Ilves per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 13 12 with xG 12 11 with xG
xG / match 1.58 1.88
xGA / match 1.44 2.48
xGD / match +0.14 -0.60
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.49 1.19

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Ilves match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
25 23 with xG
xG / match
1.72
xGA / match
1.94
xGD / match
-0.21
Points
34 of 75
  1. Sat 19/09 TPS A xG 2.78 P xGA 1.75 xGD +1.03
  2. Sat 12/09 FC Lahti H xG 2.09 P xGA 1.47 xGD +0.62
  3. Tue 08/09 FF Jaro H xG 1.85 xGA 0.58 xGD +1.27
  4. Mon 31/08 HJK H xG 0.72 xGA 2.61 P xGD -1.89
  5. Sat 22/08 VPS H xG 0.66 xGA 1.18 xGD -0.52
  6. Mon 17/08 IF Gnistan A
  7. Sun 09/08 IFK Mariehamn H xG 2.04 P xGA 1.53 xGD +0.51
  8. Sun 02/08 AC Oulu A xG 1.27 xGA 1.41 xGD -0.14
  9. Sun 26/07 FC Lahti H xG 1.61 xGA 1.38 xGD +0.23
  10. Mon 20/07 TPS A xG 3.33 xGA 0.98 xGD +2.35
  11. Sat 04/07 FF Jaro A Against the chances xG 4.03 xGA 1.12 xGD +2.91
  12. Sat 27/06 SJK H xG 2.63 xGA 3.02 xGD -0.39
  13. Tue 23/06 KuPS A xG 2.40 P xGA 4.03 xGD -1.63
  14. Wed 17/06 FF Jaro H xG 2.66 xGA 0.83 xGD +1.83
  15. Sat 13/06 TPS H xG 1.56 xGA 0.95 xGD +0.61
  16. Sat 30/05 FC Lahti A Weakest underlying xG 0.93 xGA 6.27 P xGD -5.34
  17. Sat 23/05 IF Gnistan H xG 1.48 P xGA 0.77 xGD +0.71
  18. Wed 20/05 Inter Turku H xG 0.31 xGA 1.58 P xGD -1.27
  19. Sat 16/05 HJK A xG 1.07 xGA 2.12 xGD -1.05
  20. Fri 08/05 AC Oulu H
  21. Sat 02/05 SJK A xG 0.93 xGA 2.45 xGD -1.52
  22. Fri 24/04 VPS A xG 1.34 P xGA 4.03 xGD -2.69
  23. Sat 18/04 IFK Mariehamn A xG 1.06 xGA 2.30 xGD -1.24
  24. Sat 11/04 Inter Turku A xG 1.54 P xGA 0.87 xGD +0.67
  25. Sat 04/04 KuPS H xG 1.37 xGA 1.35 xGD +0.02

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 6.27. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Ilves in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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