Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 18h to kick-offIFK Mariehamn – Ilves
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- IFK Mariehamn
- 27%
- Draw
- 26%
- Ilves
- 47%
| IFK Mariehamn | Draw | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.69 | 3.90 | 2.11 |
- Total goals
- 3.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.
-
IFK Mariehamn
- Model
- 27.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.5%
- Probability gap
- −4.4 pp
- Edge
- −21.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.69
- Market odds
- 2.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.88
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 25.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.1%
- Probability gap
- −0.4 pp
- Edge
- −10.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.90
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.10
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.6%
-
Ilves
- Model
- 47.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.5%
- Probability gap
- +4.8 pp
- Edge
- +1.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.11
- Market odds
- 2.15 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.22
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.6%
Outcomes with value
Ilves 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Ilves to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Ilves to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Ilves 2+ goals
Model 59.5% vs. bookmaker 51.5%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Ilves 2+ goals
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Ilves 2+ goals 59.5%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 51.5%. The gap between the two is 8.1%.
- The defence Ilves plays against is IFK Mariehamn's, which the fit rates at 1.31 — above the competition's average of 1.00, so an average side creates more against them than against the field.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | IFK Mariehamn | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.51 | +0.17 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -5.20 | -0.66 |
| Points won minus expected | +1.02 | +0.06 |
| npxG per shot | 0.11 | 0.13 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Ilves
47% Ilves to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 12th
- Ilves attack v IFK Mariehamn defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 11th
- Ilves defence v IFK Mariehamn attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -0.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 1.93
- IFK Mariehamn v Ilves
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IFK Mariehamn | Ilves |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 12th | (better) 1.72 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 2.50 · 12th | (better) 1.94 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -1.41 · 12th | (better) -0.21 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 0.69 · 12th | (better) 1.35 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.51 | (better) +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Ilves clean sheet
- 20%
- Ilves 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
- 2:2
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IFK Mariehamn sample
- 20 matches
- Ilves sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IFK Mariehamn
- 12 matches
- Away xG sample · Ilves
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.