SJK 2:1 IFK Mariehamn: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

SJK Home 1.88 xG

IFK Mariehamn Away 0.96 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

SJK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was SJK's attack: 1.88 xG against 2.23 projected (−0.35). IFK Mariehamn produced 0.96 xG against 1.27 projected (−0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SJK: 59% What happened
Draw: 23%
IFK Mariehamn: 18%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SJK 2.23 1.88 -0.35

IFK Mariehamn 1.27 0.96 -0.31

SJK produced 0.35 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SJK IFK Mariehamn

Shots: 12; 11
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 9; 5
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SJK

1.47 xG created 1.54 xGA

W 1.41 created, 1.92 conceded against HJK
D 2.63 created, 1.02 conceded against IF Gnistan
L 0.85 created, 2.28 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 2.19 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Lahti
D 0.37 created, 0.77 conceded against AC Oulu
D 1.36 created, 0.70 conceded against TPS

IFK Mariehamn

1.42 xG created 1.86 xGA

L 1.53 created, 2.04 conceded against Ilves
W 2.28 created, 0.85 conceded against SJK
W 1.47 created, 1.97 conceded against KuPS
W 1.15 created, 2.22 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.15 created, 2.06 conceded against FC Lahti
W 0.95 created, 2.03 conceded against TPS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SJK: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged7 won1 lost

Won
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SJK against IFK Mariehamn before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+21.0%	Won
Both teams to score	1.67	+15.5%	Won
SJK 2+ goals	1.67	+12.5%	Won
IFK Mariehamn 2+ goals	3.00	+10.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+9.5%	Won
IFK Mariehamn to score	1.40	+4.8%	Won
SJK to score	1.14	+4.0%	Won
SJK to win	1.75	+2.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SJK	58.8%	52.3%	+6.5 pp	1.70
Draw	22.9%	25.4%	−2.5 pp	4.36
IFK Mariehamn	18.3%	22.3%	−4.0 pp	5.46

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SJK to score	91.0%	82.8%	+8.2 pp	1.10
SJK not to score	9.0%	17.2%	−8.2 pp	11.12
IFK Mariehamn to score	74.9%	66.3%	+8.6 pp	1.34
IFK Mariehamn not to score	25.1%	33.7%	−8.6 pp	3.98
Both teams to score	69.3%	55.7%	+13.5 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.7%	44.3%	−13.5 pp	3.26
SJK 2+ goals	67.5%	55.7%	+11.8 pp	1.48
SJK at most 1 goal	32.5%	44.3%	−11.8 pp	3.08
IFK Mariehamn 2+ goals	37.0%	31.3%	+5.7 pp	2.70
IFK Mariehamn at most 1 goal	63.0%	68.7%	−5.7 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	89.6%	76.6%	+13.0 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.4%	23.4%	−13.0 pp	9.60
Over 2.5 goals	70.1%	54.6%	+15.5 pp	1.43
Under 2.5 goals	29.9%	45.4%	−15.5 pp	3.34

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SJK sample: 20 matches
IFK Mariehamn sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.