Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 14:00
32d 14h to kick-offHalmstads BK – Djurgårdens IF
Model updated 7 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Halmstads BK
- 17%
- Draw
- 22%
- Djurgårdens IF
- 61%
| Halmstads BK | Draw | Djurgårdens IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.84 | 4.54 | 1.64 |
- Total goals
- 3.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Djurgårdens IF
61% Djurgårdens IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 16th
- Djurgårdens IF attack v Halmstads BK defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- Djurgårdens IF defence v Halmstads BK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.27 – 2.32
- Halmstads BK v Djurgårdens IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Halmstads BK | Djurgårdens IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 2.30 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.41 · 16th | (better) 1.15 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -1.31 · 16th | (better) +1.16 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.61 · 16th | (better) 2.05 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.78 | (better) +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- Djurgårdens IF clean sheet
- 25%
- Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 10.7%
- 1:1
- 9.5%
- 1:3
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Halmstads BK sample
- 20 matches
- Djurgårdens IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Halmstads BK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Djurgårdens IF
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.