Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 19:00
24d 12h to kick-offHalmstads BK – Malmö FF
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Halmstads BK
- 18%
- Draw
- 21%
- Malmö FF
- 60%
| Halmstads BK | Draw | Malmö FF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.43 | 4.73 | 1.65 |
- Total goals
- 3.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 77%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Malmö FF
60% Malmö FF to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 16th
- Malmö FF attack v Halmstads BK defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 14th
- Malmö FF defence v Halmstads BK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.05 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 2.47
- Halmstads BK v Malmö FF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Halmstads BK | Malmö FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.10 · 16th | (better) 2.04 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 2.41 · 16th | (better) 1.50 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -1.31 · 16th | (better) +0.54 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.61 · 16th | (better) 1.67 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.78 | (better) +1.05 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 26% of the model's distribution.
- Malmö FF clean sheet
- 21%
- Malmö FF 2+ goals
- 73%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 23%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 1:3
- 8.4%
- 1:1
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Halmstads BK sample
- 20 matches
- Malmö FF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Halmstads BK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Malmö FF
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.