Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
26d 17h to kick-offAustria Wien – SK Rapid Wien
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Austria Wien
- 27%
- Draw
- 33%
- SK Rapid Wien
- 40%
| Austria Wien | Draw | SK Rapid Wien | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.69 | 3.08 | 2.48 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SK Rapid Wien
40% SK Rapid Wien to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 5th
- SK Rapid Wien attack v Austria Wien defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- SK Rapid Wien defence v Austria Wien attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.04 – 1.29
- Austria Wien v SK Rapid Wien
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Austria Wien | SK Rapid Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.74 · 12th | (better) 2.26 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.85 · 9th | (better) 1.10 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 11th | (better) +1.16 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.77 · 11th | (better) 1.95 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- SK Rapid Wien clean sheet
- 33%
- SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 0:1
- 10.2%
- 0:0
- 10.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- SK Rapid Wien sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Austria Wien
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Rapid Wien
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.