Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 10h to kick-offLASK – Red Bull Salzburg
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- LASK
- 49%
- Draw
- 27%
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 24%
| LASK | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.06 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans LASK
49% LASK to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 2nd
- LASK attack v Red Bull Salzburg defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 2nd
- LASK defence v Red Bull Salzburg attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.65 vs +1.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.80 – 1.27
- LASK v Red Bull Salzburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.54 · 2nd | (better) 2.68 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.93 · 1st | 1.08 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.60 · 1st | +1.60 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.33 · 1st | 2.33 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.65 | +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- LASK clean sheet
- 25%
- LASK 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.8%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:2
- 7.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- LASK sample
- 20 matches
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · LASK
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Red Bull Salzburg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.