Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 14:30
7d 13h to kick-offSC Rheindorf Altach – Wolfsberger AC
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- SC Rheindorf Altach
- 47%
- Draw
- 30%
- Wolfsberger AC
- 23%
| SC Rheindorf Altach | Draw | Wolfsberger AC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.12 | 3.35 | 4.37 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
SC Rheindorf Altach
- Model
- 47.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 47.3%
- Probability gap
- −0.0 pp
- Edge
- −7.9%
- Fair odds
- 2.12
- Market odds
- 1.95 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.22
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.6%
- Probability gap
- +4.3 pp
- Edge
- +7.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.35
- Market odds
- 3.60 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Wolfsberger AC
- Model
- 22.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.1%
- Probability gap
- −4.3 pp
- Edge
- −22.3%
- Fair odds
- 4.37
- Market odds
- 3.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.59
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with value
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Wolfsberger AC not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Wolfsberger AC at most 1 goal
Model 71.9% vs. bookmaker 62.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans SC Rheindorf Altach
47% SC Rheindorf Altach to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 12th
- SC Rheindorf Altach attack v Wolfsberger AC defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- SC Rheindorf Altach defence v Wolfsberger AC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.04 vs -2.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 1.04
- SC Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Rheindorf Altach | Wolfsberger AC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.24 · 7th | 1.14 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.33 · 5th | 2.53 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.08 · 6th | -1.39 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.42 · 5th | 0.70 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.04 | -2.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- SC Rheindorf Altach clean sheet
- 32%
- SC Rheindorf Altach 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Rheindorf Altach sample
- 20 matches
- Wolfsberger AC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Rheindorf Altach
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Wolfsberger AC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.