Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 19:30
20d 19h to kick-offSK Rapid Wien – SC Austria Lustenau
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Rapid Wien
- 56%
- Draw
- 26%
- SC Austria Lustenau
- 18%
| SK Rapid Wien | Draw | SC Austria Lustenau | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.79 | 3.79 | 5.60 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SK Rapid Wien
56% SK Rapid Wien to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 9th
- SK Rapid Wien attack v SC Austria Lustenau defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 6th
- SK Rapid Wien defence v SC Austria Lustenau attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs -0.40
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.02
- SK Rapid Wien v SC Austria Lustenau
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Rapid Wien | SC Austria Lustenau |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.26 · 3rd | 1.24 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 3rd | 1.89 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.16 · 3rd | -0.65 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.95 · 3rd | 0.93 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.30 | -0.40 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SK Rapid Wien clean sheet
- 33%
- SK Rapid Wien 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 9.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Rapid Wien sample
- 20 matches
- SC Austria Lustenau sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Rapid Wien
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Austria Lustenau
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- SC Austria Lustenau has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.