Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 14:30
34d 9h to kick-offWSG Tirol – Austria Wien
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- WSG Tirol
- 38%
- Draw
- 34%
- Austria Wien
- 28%
| WSG Tirol | Draw | Austria Wien | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.63 | 2.94 | 3.57 |
- Total goals
- 2.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans WSG Tirol
38% WSG Tirol to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 5th
- WSG Tirol attack v Austria Wien defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 11th
- WSG Tirol defence v Austria Wien attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.03 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 0.99
- WSG Tirol v Austria Wien
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | WSG Tirol | Austria Wien |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 6th | 0.74 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.76 · 8th | 1.85 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.24 · 7th | -1.12 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.32 · 7th | 0.77 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.03 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- WSG Tirol clean sheet
- 34%
- WSG Tirol 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.3%
- 0:0
- 11.6%
- 1:0
- 11.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · WSG Tirol
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Austria Wien
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.