Bundesliga odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every Bundesliga qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund at most 1 goal | Model prob. 53.2% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| SV Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg SV Werder Bremen to win | Model prob. 48.5% | Price 2.35 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.35u |
| SV Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg FC Augsburg not to score | Model prob. 24.4% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| SV Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg FC Augsburg at most 1 goal | Model prob. 61.7% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Eintracht Frankfurt – SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | Model prob. 20.0% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Eintracht Frankfurt – SC Freiburg SC Freiburg not to score | Model prob. 24.8% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Eintracht Frankfurt – SC Freiburg Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | Model prob. 54.9% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Eintracht Frankfurt – SC Freiburg SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | Model prob. 62.1% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FC Köln – SV Werder Bremen 1. FC Köln to win | Model prob. 53.3% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FC Köln – SV Werder Bremen SV Werder Bremen at most 1 goal | Model prob. 68.6% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.57u |
| SC Freiburg – Borussia M'gladbach Borussia M'gladbach to win | Model prob. 23.1% | Price 4.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| SC Freiburg – Borussia M'gladbach SC Freiburg not to score | Model prob. 16.0% | Price 7.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| SC Freiburg – Borussia M'gladbach SC Freiburg at most 1 goal | Model prob. 47.9% | Price 2.38 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | Model prob. 32.2% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | Model prob. 71.8% | Price 1.53 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| FC Augsburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen FC Augsburg to win | Model prob. 31.6% | Price 3.70 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| FC Augsburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen FC Augsburg 2+ goals | Model prob. 48.3% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.20u |
| TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart not to score | Model prob. 20.6% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart at most 1 goal | Model prob. 55.9% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| TSG Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund TSG Hoffenheim to win | Model prob. 43.2% | Price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln to win | Model prob. 23.2% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Paddy Power | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FC Köln – TSG Hoffenheim 1. FC Köln to win | Model prob. 42.9% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Paddy Power | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.00u |
| 1. FC Union Berlin – Eintracht Frankfurt 1. FC Union Berlin to win | Model prob. 49.3% | Price 2.60 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FC Union Berlin – Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt not to score | Model prob. 31.0% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| 1. FC Union Berlin – Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt at most 1 goal | Model prob. 70.5% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| FC Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart to score | Model prob. 79.1% | Price 1.44 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.44u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →