Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:00
19d 17h to kick-offAEK Larnaca – Omonia Nicosia
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AEK Larnaca
- 22%
- Draw
- 28%
- Omonia Nicosia
- 50%
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.48 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Omonia Nicosia
50% Omonia Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- Omonia Nicosia attack v AEK Larnaca defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 3rd
- Omonia Nicosia defence v AEK Larnaca attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.07 vs -0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 1.72
- AEK Larnaca v Omonia Nicosia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.93 · 3rd from 4 matches | (better) 2.15 · 1st from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.56 · 10th from 4 matches | (better) 0.88 · 2nd from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.37 · 5th from 4 matches | (better) +1.27 · 1st from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.53 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) 2.26 · 1st from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.11 | (better) +1.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Nicosia clean sheet
- 29%
- Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEK Larnaca sample
- 20 matches
- Omonia Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEK Larnaca
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Omonia Nicosia
- 1 match
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.