Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:00
26d 19h to kick-offAris Limassol – Anorthosis Famagusta
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aris Limassol
- 55%
- Draw
- 29%
- Anorthosis Famagusta
- 16%
| Aris Limassol | Draw | Anorthosis Famagusta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.82 | 3.48 | 6.07 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Aris Limassol
55% Aris Limassol to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Aris Limassol attack v Anorthosis Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 14th
- Aris Limassol defence v Anorthosis Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.42 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 0.83
- Aris Limassol v Anorthosis Famagusta
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aris Limassol | Anorthosis Famagusta |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.71 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.14 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.25 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.46 · 3rd from 4 matches | -0.41 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.73 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.09 · 10th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.42 | -0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Limassol clean sheet
- 41%
- Aris Limassol 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 1:0
- 11.8%
- 2:0
- 11.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Anorthosis Famagusta sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aris Limassol
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Anorthosis Famagusta
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.