Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 18h to kick-offKarmiotissa Polemidion – Omonia Nicosia
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 12%
- Draw
- 22%
- Omonia Nicosia
- 65%
| Karmiotissa Polemidion | Draw | Omonia Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 8.10 | 4.46 | 1.53 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Karmiotissa Polemidion
- Model
- 12.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 6.9%
- Probability gap
- +5.5 pp
- Edge
- +60.5%
- Fair odds
- 8.10
- Market odds
- 13.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 8.51
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 22.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 14.9%
- Probability gap
- +7.5 pp
- Edge
- +34.6%
- Fair odds
- 4.46
- Market odds
- 6.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.68
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
-
Omonia Nicosia
- Model
- 65.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 78.2%
- Probability gap
- −13.0 pp
- Edge
- −25.4%
- Fair odds
- 1.53
- Market odds
- 1.14 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.61
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.8%
Outcomes with value
Karmiotissa Polemidion to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Karmiotissa Polemidion to win
Model 12.3% vs. bookmaker 6.9%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Karmiotissa Polemidion to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches. Everything behind this edge rests on that, which is too little to set out as a reason.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Karmiotissa Polemidion | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -1.13 from 4 matches | +1.07 |
| Goals scored minus expected | -2.22 from 4 matches | -2.46 from 4 matches |
| Points won minus expected | +0.40 from 4 matches | -1.78 from 4 matches |
| npxG per shot | 0.13 from 4 matches | 0.12 from 3 matches |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Omonia Nicosia
65% Omonia Nicosia to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 14th
- Omonia Nicosia attack v Karmiotissa Polemidion defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 11th
- Omonia Nicosia defence v Karmiotissa Polemidion attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.07 vs -1.13
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 0.92 – 2.14
- Karmiotissa Polemidion v Omonia Nicosia
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Karmiotissa Polemidion | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.31 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 2.15 · 1st from 3 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.43 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 0.88 · 2nd from 3 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.13 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) +1.27 · 1st from 3 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.65 · 14th from 4 matches | (better) 2.26 · 1st from 3 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.13 from 4 matches | (better) +1.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Nicosia clean sheet
- 37%
- Omonia Nicosia 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 11.6%
- 1:1
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 10.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Karmiotissa Polemidion sample
- 4 matches
- Omonia Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Karmiotissa Polemidion
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Omonia Nicosia
- 1 match
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Warnings
- Karmiotissa Polemidion has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.