Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00
12d 20h to kick-offBaník Ostrava – AC Sparta Praha
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Baník Ostrava
- 29%
- Draw
- 30%
- AC Sparta Praha
- 42%
| Baník Ostrava | Draw | AC Sparta Praha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.49 | 3.38 | 2.40 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AC Sparta Praha
42% AC Sparta Praha to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 15th
- AC Sparta Praha attack v Baník Ostrava defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- AC Sparta Praha defence v Baník Ostrava attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.66 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 1.52
- Baník Ostrava v AC Sparta Praha
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Baník Ostrava | AC Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 7th | (better) 1.66 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.89 · 15th | (better) 1.25 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.55 · 13th | (better) +0.41 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.02 · 14th | (better) 1.68 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.35 | (better) +0.66 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- AC Sparta Praha clean sheet
- 26%
- AC Sparta Praha 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baník Ostrava sample
- 20 matches
- AC Sparta Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Baník Ostrava
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · AC Sparta Praha
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.