Friday, 09/10/2026 at 18:00
5d 18h to kick-offFC Zlín – SK Slavia Praha
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:22
What the model expects
- FC Zlín
- 16%
- Draw
- 26%
- SK Slavia Praha
- 58%
| FC Zlín | Draw | SK Slavia Praha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 6.24 | 3.85 | 1.72 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
FC Zlín
- Model
- 16.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 9.0%
- Probability gap
- +7.1 pp
- Edge
- +60.2%
- Fair odds
- 6.24
- Market odds
- 10.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.55
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 16.3%
- Probability gap
- +9.7 pp
- Edge
- +42.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.85
- Market odds
- 5.50 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.04
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.5%
-
SK Slavia Praha
- Model
- 58.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 74.7%
- Probability gap
- −16.7 pp
- Edge
- −30.4%
- Fair odds
- 1.72
- Market odds
- 1.20 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.81
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.5%
Outcomes with value
FC Zlín to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
FC Zlín to win
Model 16.0% vs. bookmaker 9.0%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: FC Zlín to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes FC Zlín to win 16.0%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 9.0%. The gap between the two is 7.1%.
- Czech First League carries more home advantage than most: the baselines the fit reads put a home side's expected goals at 1.29 times an away side's, against a median of 1.22 across the competitions the model fits.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | FC Zlín | SK Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.44 | +0.90 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +0.20 | +3.56 |
| Points won minus expected | -7.13 | +4.02 |
| npxG per shot | 0.07 | 0.13 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans SK Slavia Praha
58% SK Slavia Praha to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 14th
- SK Slavia Praha attack v FC Zlín defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- SK Slavia Praha defence v FC Zlín attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs -0.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.96 – 1.86
- FC Zlín v SK Slavia Praha
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Zlín | SK Slavia Praha |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.87 · 16th | (better) 2.38 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.44 · 12th | (better) 1.02 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.57 · 14th | (better) +1.36 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 15th | (better) 2.11 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.44 | (better) +0.90 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SK Slavia Praha clean sheet
- 35%
- SK Slavia Praha 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 1:2
- 11.8%
- 0:2
- 10.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Zlín sample
- 20 matches
- SK Slavia Praha sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Zlín
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Slavia Praha
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.