Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeJagiellonia Białystok 1:3 Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Jagiellonia Białystok's attack: 2.30 xG against 1.22 projected (+1.08). Legia Warszawa produced 1.75 xG against 1.33 projected (+0.42).
Goals
- 15' Rafał Augustyniak (pen.) Legia Warszawa · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
- 20' Nik Prelec (o.g.) Legia Warszawa · 0.12 xG chance 0–2
- 35' Jesús Imaz (pen.) Jagiellonia Białystok · 0.82 xG chance 1–2
- 75' Paweł Wszołek Legia Warszawa · 0.25 xG chance 1–3
The model against the result
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 31%
- Draw
- 31%
- Legia Warszawa
- 37% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Jagiellonia Białystok produced 1.08 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 11
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 9
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 1.30
- 0.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.92
- Penalties
- 1
- 1
Jagiellonia Białystok's shots add up to 2.29 xG and Legia Warszawa's to 1.88; the published figures are 2.30 and 1.75.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 4.17 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- Legia Warszawa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.61 xGA
- W 0.89 created, 2.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 1.08 created, 1.10 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- W 4.44 created, 1.24 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
- L 0.48 created, 1.78 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 1.39 created, 1.86 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.24 created, 1.68 conceded against Wisła Kraków
1.48 xG created 1.18 xGA
- D 0.69 created, 0.73 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- W 1.68 created, 0.38 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 0.98 created, 1.10 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- D 1.82 created, 1.76 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- W 2.26 created, 1.48 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.46 created, 1.60 conceded against Widzew Łódź
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | +7.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +6.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 31.3% | 31.5% | −0.2 pp | 3.19 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 26.9% | +4.4 pp | 3.19 |
| Legia Warszawa | 37.3% | 41.6% | −4.2 pp | 2.68 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 57.7% | +0.1 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.2% | 42.3% | −0.1 pp | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | 76.6% | +0.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.4% | 23.4% | −0.0 pp | 4.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 54.6% | −6.5 pp | 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 45.4% | +6.5 pp | 1.92 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.