Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timeMKS Korona Kielce 3:2 Raków Częstochowa
MKS Korona Kielce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was MKS Korona Kielce's attack: 3.46 xG against 1.59 projected (+1.87). Raków Częstochowa produced 1.79 xG against 1.26 projected (+0.53).
Goals
- 20' Mariusz Stępiński (pen.) MKS Korona Kielce · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
- 33' Camilo Mena MKS Korona Kielce · 0.09 xG chance 2–0
- 58' Lamine Diaby-Fadiga Raków Częstochowa · 0.26 xG chance 2–1
- 62' Mariusz Stępiński (pen.) MKS Korona Kielce · 0.82 xG chance 3–1
- 82' Bogdan Mirčetić Raków Częstochowa · 0.06 xG chance 3–2
The model against the result
- MKS Korona Kielce
- 43% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Raków Częstochowa
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
MKS Korona Kielce produced 1.87 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 19
- On target
- 11
- 6
- Inside the box
- 14
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.10
- 1.67
- Set-piece xG
- 0.83
- 0.17
- Penalties
- 2
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.88 for MKS Korona Kielce and 1.82 for Raków Częstochowa.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
42 shots · 5.41 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- MKS Korona Kielce
- Raków Częstochowa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.28 xG created 1.61 xGA
- W 2.09 created, 2.31 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.88 created, 0.68 conceded against Motor Lublin
- W 0.92 created, 2.25 conceded against Wisła Płock
- D 1.14 created, 1.35 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- W 2.54 created, 1.29 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.09 created, 1.77 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
1.09 xG created 2.57 xGA
- L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.24 created, 4.44 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.84 created, 2.22 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 0.40 created, 2.84 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 1.02 created, 1.79 conceded against Motor Lublin
- L 2.17 created, 1.38 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +5.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +0.8% | Won |
| MKS Korona Kielce to score | 1.22 | +0.3% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Korona Kielce | 43.4% | 41.8% | +1.6 pp | 2.30 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 27.2% | +1.7 pp | 3.46 |
| Raków Częstochowa | 27.7% | 31.0% | −3.3 pp | 3.61 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKS Korona Kielce to score | 82.1% | 76.6% | +5.5 pp | 1.22 |
| MKS Korona Kielce not to score | 17.9% | 23.4% | −5.5 pp | 5.59 |
| Raków Częstochowa to score | 74.7% | 70.9% | +3.8 pp | 1.34 |
| Raków Częstochowa not to score | 25.3% | 29.1% | −3.8 pp | 3.95 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 55.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 44.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.70 |
| MKS Korona Kielce 2+ goals | 48.8% | 46.3% | +2.5 pp | 2.05 |
| MKS Korona Kielce at most 1 goal | 51.2% | 53.7% | −2.5 pp | 1.95 |
| Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals | 36.7% | 35.5% | +1.2 pp | 2.72 |
| Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal | 63.3% | 64.5% | −1.2 pp | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 75.7% | +6.2 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 24.3% | −6.2 pp | 5.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 52.6% | +3.4 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 47.4% | −3.4 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MKS Korona Kielce sample
- 20 matches
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.