Tuesday, 15/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeRaków Częstochowa 2:3 Zagłębie Lubin
Raków Częstochowa were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. Zagłębie Lubin won 3–2. The biggest difference was Raków Częstochowa's attack: 2.17 xG against 1.40 projected (+0.77).
Goals
- 45' Marko Bulat Raków Częstochowa · 0.19 xG chance 1–0
- 70' Michał Nalepa Zagłębie Lubin · 0.24 xG chance 1–1
- 87' Marcel Regula Zagłębie Lubin · 0.25 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Patryk Makuch (pen.) Raków Częstochowa · 0.82 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
- 90' Damian Michalski Zagłębie Lubin · 0.47 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
The model against the result
- Raków Częstochowa
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 32% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Raków Częstochowa produced 0.77 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 9
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 17
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 1.11
- 1.06
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.28
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.39 for Raków Częstochowa and 1.38 for Zagłębie Lubin.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
30 shots · 3.55 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Raków Częstochowa
- Zagłębie Lubin
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.23 xG created 2.59 xGA
- L 3.02 created, 1.52 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- L 0.85 created, 2.74 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.24 created, 4.44 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
- L 0.84 created, 2.22 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- L 0.40 created, 2.84 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 1.02 created, 1.79 conceded against Motor Lublin
1.44 xG created 1.15 xGA
- L 1.03 created, 1.70 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.89 created, 1.26 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- D 1.27 created, 0.78 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 1.37 created, 0.82 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- D 1.47 created, 1.02 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 2.62 created, 1.30 conceded against GKS Katowice
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin to win | 4.20 | +35.0% | Won |
| Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals | 3.25 | +23.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.75 | +13.7% | Lost |
| Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal | 1.91 | +10.6% | Lost |
| Zagłębie Lubin to score | 1.44 | +8.8% | Won |
| Raków Częstochowa not to score | 5.00 | +8.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +6.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 37.5% | 52.4% | −14.9 pp | 2.66 |
| Draw | 30.3% | 25.1% | +5.2 pp | 3.30 |
| Zagłębie Lubin | 32.1% | 22.5% | +9.7 pp | 3.11 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa to score | 78.2% | 81.1% | −2.8 pp | 1.28 |
| Raków Częstochowa not to score | 21.8% | 18.9% | +2.8 pp | 4.60 |
| Zagłębie Lubin to score | 75.3% | 64.5% | +10.8 pp | 1.33 |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to score | 24.7% | 35.5% | −10.8 pp | 4.05 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 53.3% | +7.4 pp | 1.65 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.3% | 46.7% | −7.4 pp | 2.54 |
| Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals | 42.1% | 51.5% | −9.4 pp | 2.38 |
| Raków Częstochowa at most 1 goal | 57.9% | 48.5% | +9.4 pp | 1.73 |
| Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals | 38.0% | 29.1% | +8.9 pp | 2.63 |
| Zagłębie Lubin at most 1 goal | 62.0% | 70.9% | −8.9 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | 75.0% | +4.3 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.7% | 25.0% | −4.3 pp | 4.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | 52.6% | −0.6 pp | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 47.4% | +0.6 pp | 2.08 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.