Motor Lublin 0:0 Górnik Zabrze: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:15

Full time

Match report · Ekstraklasa

Motor Lublin Home 0.52 xG · 14 shots

Górnik Zabrze Away 1.20 xG · 13 shots

00 Górnik Zabrze had the better chances, but it finished level

Górnik Zabrze were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Motor Lublin's attack: 0.52 xG against 1.15 projected (−0.63).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Motor Lublin: 29%
Draw: 31% What happened
Górnik Zabrze: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Motor Lublin 1.15 0.52 -0.63

Górnik Zabrze 1.37 1.20 -0.17

Motor Lublin produced 0.63 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Motor Lublin Górnik Zabrze

Shots: 14; 13
On target: 3; 2
Inside the box: 7; 7
xG per shot: 0.03; 0.09
Open play xG: 0.22; 1.18
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.52 for Motor Lublin and 1.20 for Górnik Zabrze.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 1.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Motor Lublin
Górnik Zabrze
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Motor Lublin

1.47 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 0.92 created, 2.35 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
W 2.92 created, 1.10 conceded against GKS Katowice
D 0.68 created, 0.88 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
L 1.01 created, 1.57 conceded against Piast Gliwice
L 1.48 created, 2.26 conceded against Legia Warszawa
L 1.79 created, 1.02 conceded against Raków Częstochowa

Górnik Zabrze

1.68 xG created 0.86 xGA

W 0.60 created, 1.69 conceded against Wisła Kraków
L 2.50 created, 1.56 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 2.22 created, 0.84 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
W 1.44 created, 0.45 conceded against Cracovia
W 1.53 created, 0.50 conceded against Lech Poznań
W 1.77 created, 0.09 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Motor Lublin: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Motor Lublin against Górnik Zabrze before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+13.6%	Won
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	1.83	+8.4%	Won
Draw	3.40	+6.4%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+4.2%	Won
Górnik Zabrze not to score	4.50	+1.7%	Won
Motor Lublin at most 1 goal	1.50	+1.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Motor Lublin	28.7%	29.5%	−0.8 pp	3.49
Draw	31.3%	26.9%	+4.4 pp	3.20
Górnik Zabrze	40.0%	43.6%	−3.5 pp	2.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Motor Lublin to score	71.1%	72.3%	−1.3 pp	1.41
Motor Lublin not to score	28.9%	27.7%	+1.3 pp	3.45
Górnik Zabrze to score	77.4%	79.2%	−1.8 pp	1.29
Górnik Zabrze not to score	22.6%	20.8%	+1.8 pp	4.43
Both teams to score	56.8%	58.9%	−2.0 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.2%	41.1%	+2.0 pp	2.32
Motor Lublin 2+ goals	32.2%	37.5%	−5.3 pp	3.10
Motor Lublin at most 1 goal	67.8%	62.5%	+5.3 pp	1.48
Górnik Zabrze 2+ goals	40.9%	50.0%	−9.1 pp	2.45
Górnik Zabrze at most 1 goal	59.1%	50.0%	+9.1 pp	1.69
Over 1.5 goals	76.0%	78.3%	−2.4 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.0%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	4.16
Over 2.5 goals	47.2%	56.3%	−9.1 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.8%	43.7%	+9.1 pp	1.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Motor Lublin sample: 20 matches
Górnik Zabrze sample: 20 matches
Computed: 11 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 11 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.