xgEdge

Expected goals

Pogoń Szczecin expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Ekstraklasa · after 8 matches · updated 4 Oct

Pogoń Szczecin's attacking and defensive expected goals in Ekstraklasa 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Pogoń Szczecin xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.48 xG per match
#11/18
Attack (xG per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Lech Poznań 2.07
#2 Wisła Kraków 1.99
#3 GKS Katowice 1.77
#4 Legia Warszawa 1.71
#5 Górnik Zabrze 1.58
#6 Widzew Łódź 1.57
#7 Wieczysta Kraków 1.57
#8 Cracovia 1.53
#9 Wisła Płock 1.52
#10 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.50
#11 Pogoń Szczecin 1.48
#12 Raków Częstochowa 1.42
#13 Radomiak Radom 1.41
#14 MKS Korona Kielce 1.40
#15 Śląsk Wrocław 1.40
#16 Motor Lublin 1.39
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 1.35
#18 Piast Gliwice 1.22
League avg
1.54
Total
11.87 8 matches
Defence
1.38 xGA per match
#6/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Lech Poznań 0.89
#2 Górnik Zabrze 1.05
#3 Wisła Kraków 1.10
#4 Zagłębie Lubin 1.22
#5 Legia Warszawa 1.27
#6 Pogoń Szczecin 1.38
#7 Cracovia 1.43
#8 MKS Korona Kielce 1.48
#9 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.52
#10 Motor Lublin 1.53
#11 Wieczysta Kraków 1.60
#12 Wisła Płock 1.63
#13 Widzew Łódź 1.67
#14 Śląsk Wrocław 1.73
#15 Piast Gliwice 1.87
#16 GKS Katowice 2.00
#17 Radomiak Radom 2.05
#18 Raków Częstochowa 2.36
League avg
1.54
Total
11.06 8 matches
xG difference
+0.10 xGD per match
#7/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Lech Poznań +1.18
#2 Wisła Kraków +0.89
#3 Górnik Zabrze +0.53
#4 Legia Warszawa +0.43
#5 Zagłębie Lubin +0.13
#6 Cracovia +0.10
#7 Pogoń Szczecin +0.10
#8 Jagiellonia Białystok -0.03
#9 Wieczysta Kraków -0.04
#10 MKS Korona Kielce -0.07
#11 Widzew Łódź -0.10
#12 Wisła Płock -0.11
#13 Motor Lublin -0.14
#14 GKS Katowice -0.23
#15 Śląsk Wrocław -0.34
#16 Radomiak Radom -0.64
#17 Piast Gliwice -0.65
#18 Raków Częstochowa -0.94
League avg
0.00
Total
+0.81 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.48 xPts per match
#5/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Lech Poznań 2.07
#2 Wisła Kraków 1.97
#3 Górnik Zabrze 1.79
#4 Legia Warszawa 1.66
#5 Pogoń Szczecin 1.48
#6 Zagłębie Lubin 1.47
#7 Cracovia 1.42
#8 Wieczysta Kraków 1.33
#9 GKS Katowice 1.30
#10 Wisła Płock 1.30
#11 Widzew Łódź 1.29
#12 MKS Korona Kielce 1.27
#13 Motor Lublin 1.26
#14 Jagiellonia Białystok 1.23
#15 Śląsk Wrocław 1.20
#16 Radomiak Radom 0.99
#17 Piast Gliwice 0.96
#18 Raków Częstochowa 0.93
League avg
1.38
Total
11.84 vs 15 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Pogoń Szczecin's underlying numbers sit close to the Ekstraklasa average. They rank #7 for xG difference at +0.10 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 12 goals are 0.13 above 11.87 xG, while 15 points are 3.16 above 11.84 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
12 11.87 +0.13 scored 0.13 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
6 11.06 -5.06 conceded 5.06 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
15 11.84 +3.16 3.16 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Pogoń Szczecin are 0.13 goals above their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at +1.32, against Wisła Kraków on Sun 23/08.

Goals
12
xG
11.87
Gap
+0.13
Fri 24/07 Mon 03/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 23/08 Sat 29/08 Mon 07/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.08 -0.01 +0.64 +1.32 +0.50 -0.49 -0.44 +0.13 -1.08 +1.07 +0.65 +0.68 -0.82 -0.99 +0.05 +0.57 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Pogoń Szczecin: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 24/07 Legia Warszawa 0 1.08 -1.08 -1.08
Mon 03/08 Cracovia 2 0.93 +1.07 -0.01
Sat 08/08 Motor Lublin 3 2.35 +0.65 +0.64
Sun 23/08 Wisła Kraków 2 1.32 +0.68 +1.32
Sat 29/08 Zagłębie Lubin 0 0.82 -0.82 +0.50
Mon 07/09 Wisła Płock 1 1.99 -0.99 -0.49
Sun 13/09 Wieczysta Kraków 2 1.95 +0.05 -0.44
Sun 20/09 Piast Gliwice 2 1.43 +0.57 +0.13

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Pogoń Szczecin xG trend

Current form +0.43 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 8 matches. The worst was against Legia Warszawa on Fri 24/07 (-2.13).

npxG · last 6
1.62
npxGA · last 6
1.19
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -2.13 Fri 24/07 -0.20 Mon 03/08 +1.56 Sat 08/08 +0.39 Sun 23/08 -0.73 Sat 29/08 +0.01 Mon 07/09 +0.77 Sun 13/09 +0.58 Sun 20/09 +0.03 season avg
Pogoń Szczecin: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 24/07 Legia Warszawa 1.08 3.21 -2.13 -2.13
Mon 03/08 Cracovia 0.93 1.13 -0.20 -1.16
Sat 08/08 Motor Lublin 2.48 0.92 +1.56 -0.26
Sun 23/08 Wisła Kraków 1.35 0.96 +0.39 -0.09
Sat 29/08 Zagłębie Lubin 0.54 1.27 -0.73 -0.22
Mon 07/09 Wisła Płock 1.91 1.90 +0.01 -0.18
Sun 13/09 Wieczysta Kraków 1.97 1.20 +0.77 -0.05
Sun 20/09 Piast Gliwice 1.45 0.87 +0.58 +0.03

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.46 npxG and 1.43 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
tied number 6 hardest of 18 in Ekstraklasa
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 18

  1. Piast Gliwice Away −0.09
  2. Wieczysta Kraków Home +0.03
  3. Wisła Płock Home +0.01
  4. Zagłębie Lubin Away −0.15
  5. Wisła Kraków Home +0.40
  6. Motor Lublin Home −0.15
  7. Cracovia Away +0.15
  8. Legia Warszawa Home +0.14

Last 5

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 6 hardest of 18

  1. Piast Gliwice Away −0.09
  2. Wieczysta Kraków Home +0.03
  3. Wisła Płock Home +0.01
  4. Zagłębie Lubin Away −0.15
  5. Wisła Kraków Home +0.40

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Pogoń Szczecin shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Pogoń Szczecin take 13.5 shots a match (league 14.9) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #14 in Ekstraklasa for volume and #2 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 34% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.5 shots per match
#14/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Wisła Kraków 19.1
#2 Lech Poznań 18.9
#3 GKS Katowice 16.8
#4 Legia Warszawa 15.4
#5 Widzew Łódź 15.3
=6 Cracovia 15.1
=6 Raków Częstochowa 15.1
#8 Wisła Płock 14.9
=9 Motor Lublin 14.7
=9 Radomiak Radom 14.7
#11 Wieczysta Kraków 14.5
#12 Piast Gliwice 14.0
#13 MKS Korona Kielce 13.7
#14 Pogoń Szczecin 13.5
#15 Górnik Zabrze 13.4
#16 Jagiellonia Białystok 13.4
#17 Zagłębie Lubin 13.3
#18 Śląsk Wrocław 12.0
League avg
14.9
Total
108 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#2/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Lech Poznań 0.11
#2 Pogoń Szczecin 0.11
#3 Wisła Płock 0.11
#4 Śląsk Wrocław 0.10
#5 Legia Warszawa 0.10
#6 Wieczysta Kraków 0.10
#7 Zagłębie Lubin 0.10
#8 Górnik Zabrze 0.10
#9 Widzew Łódź 0.10
#10 Cracovia 0.10
#11 Motor Lublin 0.10
#12 Wisła Kraków 0.10
#13 GKS Katowice 0.09
#14 MKS Korona Kielce 0.09
#15 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.09
#16 Radomiak Radom 0.08
#17 Raków Częstochowa 0.08
#18 Piast Gliwice 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
11.71 npxG from 108 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.1 shots per match
=12/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Lech Poznań 11.1
#2 Górnik Zabrze 11.4
#3 Wisła Kraków 12.0
#4 Legia Warszawa 12.7
#5 Motor Lublin 13.9
#6 MKS Korona Kielce 14.0
#7 Wisła Płock 14.4
#8 Widzew Łódź 14.9
#9 Cracovia 15.1
#10 Raków Częstochowa 15.3
#11 Zagłębie Lubin 15.8
=12 Jagiellonia Białystok 16.1
=12 Pogoń Szczecin 16.1
#14 Śląsk Wrocław 16.2
#15 GKS Katowice 16.9
#16 Wieczysta Kraków 17.0
#17 Piast Gliwice 17.2
#18 Radomiak Radom 17.6
League avg
14.9
Total
129 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#7/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Ekstraklasa, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Zagłębie Lubin 0.06
#2 Cracovia 0.07
#3 Lech Poznań 0.08
#4 Jagiellonia Białystok 0.08
#5 Górnik Zabrze 0.08
#6 Wisła Kraków 0.09
#7 Pogoń Szczecin 0.09
#8 Legia Warszawa 0.09
#9 Wieczysta Kraków 0.10
#10 Wisła Płock 0.10
#11 Motor Lublin 0.10
#12 Piast Gliwice 0.10
#13 MKS Korona Kielce 0.10
#14 GKS Katowice 0.11
#15 Radomiak Radom 0.11
#16 Śląsk Wrocław 0.11
#17 Widzew Łódź 0.12
#18 Raków Częstochowa 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
11.46 npxGA from 129 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 73 of 108 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

62% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 80 of 129 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

66% open play · 34% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 4.0 of 11.7 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

60% open play · 40% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 4.5 of 11.2 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Pogoń Szczecin home and away xG

Pogoń Szczecin per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 3
xG / match 1.74 1.06
xGA / match 1.53 1.13
xGD / match +0.20 -0.07
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.60 1.29

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Pogoń Szczecin match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.74
xGA / match
1.53
xGD / match
+0.20
Points
8 of 15
  1. Sun 13/09 Wieczysta Kraków H xG 1.95 xGA 1.20 xGD +0.75
  2. Mon 07/09 Wisła Płock H xG 1.99 xGA 1.67 xGD +0.32
  3. Sun 23/08 Wisła Kraków H xG 1.32 xGA 0.86 xGD +0.46
  4. Sat 08/08 Motor Lublin H Best underlying xG 2.35 xGA 0.92 xGD +1.43
  5. Fri 24/07 Legia Warszawa H Weakest underlying xG 1.08 xGA 3.02 xGD -1.94

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.02. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Pogoń Szczecin in Ekstraklasa

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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