Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timePogoń Szczecin 2:0 Wieczysta Kraków
Pogoń Szczecin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Pogoń Szczecin's attack: 1.95 xG against 1.47 projected (+0.48).
Goals
- 59' Darko Churlinov Pogoń Szczecin · 0.16 xG chance 1–0
- 90' Jordi Sánchez Pogoń Szczecin · 0.51 xG chance 2–0
The model against the result
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 36% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 35%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Pogoń Szczecin produced 0.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 15
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 13
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 1.79
- 1.12
- Set-piece xG
- 0.15
- 0.09
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.97 for Pogoń Szczecin and 1.20 for Wieczysta Kraków.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 3.15 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Pogoń Szczecin
- Wieczysta Kraków
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.50 xGA
- L 1.08 created, 3.02 conceded against Legia Warszawa
- W 0.93 created, 1.15 conceded against Cracovia
- W 2.35 created, 0.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
- D 1.32 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- D 0.82 created, 1.37 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- D 1.99 created, 1.67 conceded against Wisła Płock
1.51 xG created 1.62 xGA
- L 2.00 created, 1.67 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 0.99 created, 1.69 conceded against Lech Poznań
- W 1.68 created, 1.16 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 1.98 created, 2.08 conceded against Cracovia
- L 1.38 created, 1.64 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- D 1.02 created, 1.47 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wieczysta Kraków to win | 3.25 | +13.4% | Lost |
| Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals | 2.38 | +3.4% | Lost |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to score | 5.00 | +2.0% | Lost |
| Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +1.8% | Lost |
| Wieczysta Kraków to score | 1.29 | +1.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.50 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +1.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Szczecin | 36.1% | 43.9% | −7.8 pp | 2.77 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 27.0% | +2.0 pp | 3.45 |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 34.9% | 29.1% | +5.8 pp | 2.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogoń Szczecin to score | 79.6% | 81.1% | −1.5 pp | 1.26 |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to score | 20.4% | 18.9% | +1.5 pp | 4.90 |
| Wieczysta Kraków to score | 79.0% | 73.1% | +5.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Wieczysta Kraków not to score | 21.0% | 26.9% | −5.9 pp | 4.76 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 58.9% | +5.6 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.5% | 41.1% | −5.6 pp | 2.82 |
| Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals | 44.5% | 50.0% | −5.5 pp | 2.25 |
| Pogoń Szczecin at most 1 goal | 55.5% | 50.0% | +5.5 pp | 1.80 |
| Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals | 43.5% | 39.2% | +4.3 pp | 2.30 |
| Wieczysta Kraków at most 1 goal | 56.5% | 60.8% | −4.3 pp | 1.77 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | 80.8% | +1.9 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.3% | 19.2% | −1.9 pp | 5.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | 58.9% | −1.5 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | 41.1% | +1.5 pp | 2.35 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 6 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.