Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 14:45
25d 22h to kick-offWieczysta Kraków – Jagiellonia Białystok
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 45%
- Draw
- 28%
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 27%
| Wieczysta Kraków | Draw | Jagiellonia Białystok | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.21 | 3.58 | 3.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wieczysta Kraków
45% Wieczysta Kraków to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 10th
- Wieczysta Kraków attack v Jagiellonia Białystok defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 12th
- Wieczysta Kraków defence v Jagiellonia Białystok attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.01 vs +0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.29
- Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia Białystok
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wieczysta Kraków | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.57 · 7th | 1.50 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.60 · 11th | (better) 1.52 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.04 · 9th | (better) -0.03 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.33 · 8th | 1.23 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.02 | (better) +0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet
- 25%
- Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 8 matches
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wieczysta Kraków
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Jagiellonia Białystok
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.