Friday, 16/10/2026 at 18:00
12d 16h to kick-offWieczysta Kraków – Raków Częstochowa
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wieczysta Kraków
- 49%
- Draw
- 26%
- Raków Częstochowa
- 25%
| Wieczysta Kraków | Draw | Raków Częstochowa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.02 | 3.86 | 4.05 |
- Total goals
- 3.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 69%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wieczysta Kraków
49% Wieczysta Kraków to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 17th
- Wieczysta Kraków attack v Raków Częstochowa defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 6th
- Wieczysta Kraków defence v Raków Częstochowa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.01 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.91 – 1.36
- Wieczysta Kraków v Raków Częstochowa
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wieczysta Kraków | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.57 · 7th | 1.42 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.60 · 11th | 2.36 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.04 · 9th | -0.94 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.33 · 8th | 0.93 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.02 | -1.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Wieczysta Kraków clean sheet
- 23%
- Wieczysta Kraków 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 31%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 2:2
- 7.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wieczysta Kraków sample
- 8 matches
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wieczysta Kraków
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Raków Częstochowa
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Wieczysta Kraków has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.