Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 14:45
14d 13h to kick-offZagłębie Lubin – Jagiellonia Białystok
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 38%
- Draw
- 31%
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 30%
| Zagłębie Lubin | Draw | Jagiellonia Białystok | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.60 | 3.18 | 3.31 |
- Total goals
- 2.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Zagłębie Lubin
38% Zagłębie Lubin to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 10th
- Zagłębie Lubin attack v Jagiellonia Białystok defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 12th
- Zagłębie Lubin defence v Jagiellonia Białystok attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.32 vs +0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.18
- Zagłębie Lubin v Jagiellonia Białystok
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zagłębie Lubin | Jagiellonia Białystok |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 17th | (better) 1.50 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.22 · 4th | 1.52 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.13 · 5th | -0.03 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.47 · 6th | 1.23 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.32 | +0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Zagłębie Lubin clean sheet
- 28%
- Zagłębie Lubin 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zagłębie Lubin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Jagiellonia Białystok
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.