Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:45
Full timeZagłębie Lubin 0:2 Wisła Płock
Zagłębie Lubin were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. Wisła Płock won 2–0. The biggest difference was Zagłębie Lubin's attack: 1.06 xG against 1.34 projected (−0.28).
Goals
- 44' Łukasz Sekulski Wisła Płock · 0.72 xG chance 0–1
- 90' Said Hamulić Wisła Płock · 0.02 xG chance 0–2
The model against the result
- Zagłębie Lubin
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- Wisła Płock
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Zagłębie Lubin produced 0.28 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 9
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 10
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.13
- Open play xG
- 0.76
- 1.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.06 for Zagłębie Lubin and 1.18 for Wisła Płock.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 2.18 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Zagłębie Lubin
- Wisła Płock
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.50 xG created 1.22 xGA
- W 0.89 created, 1.26 conceded against Śląsk Wrocław
- D 1.27 created, 0.78 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- D 1.37 created, 0.82 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- D 1.47 created, 1.02 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 2.62 created, 1.30 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 1.38 created, 2.17 conceded against Raków Częstochowa
1.69 xG created 1.75 xGA
- D 1.54 created, 1.79 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 1.49 created, 1.78 conceded against Wisła Kraków
- L 1.73 created, 2.90 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 2.25 created, 0.92 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- D 1.67 created, 1.99 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Cracovia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +2.6% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +1.5% | Won |
| Draw | 3.30 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagłębie Lubin | 34.8% | 40.6% | −5.8 pp | 2.88 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 27.7% | +2.8 pp | 3.28 |
| Wisła Płock | 34.7% | 31.8% | +3.0 pp | 2.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 54.7% | +5.7 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.6% | 45.3% | −5.7 pp | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 73.1% | +5.8 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 26.9% | −5.8 pp | 4.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 50.0% | +1.5 pp | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 50.0% | −1.5 pp | 2.06 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zagłębie Lubin sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.