Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 12:15
Full timeWisła Płock 2:2 Piast Gliwice
Wisła Płock were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Wisła Płock's attack: 2.18 xG against 1.51 projected (+0.67). Piast Gliwice produced 1.65 xG against 1.32 projected (+0.33).
Goals
- 24' Andreas Katsantonis Piast Gliwice · 0.52 xG chance 0–1
- 37' Oskar Lesniak Piast Gliwice · 0.11 xG chance 0–2
- 46' Olaf Kobacki Wisła Płock · 0.57 xG chance 1–2
- 67' Łukasz Sekulski Wisła Płock · 0.07 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Wisła Płock
- 40%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- Piast Gliwice
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Wisła Płock produced 0.67 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 17
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 14
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.48
- 1.46
- Set-piece xG
- 0.71
- 0.19
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.18 for Wisła Płock.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
38 shots · 3.83 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Wisła Płock
- Piast Gliwice
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.06 xG created 1.48 xGA
- D 1.67 created, 1.99 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Cracovia
- W 1.17 created, 1.06 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- L 0.62 created, 1.83 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
- W 0.46 created, 1.12 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 0.95 created, 1.73 conceded against Jagiellonia Białystok
1.29 xG created 1.94 xGA
- W 0.87 created, 1.55 conceded against GKS Katowice
- W 1.79 created, 2.33 conceded against Radomiak Radom
- L 0.87 created, 1.43 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.64 created, 1.76 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- D 0.86 created, 3.08 conceded against Górnik Zabrze
- W 1.70 created, 1.48 conceded against Cracovia
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 qualified edge flagged1 won0 lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +1.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock | 39.7% | 44.2% | −4.5 pp | 2.52 |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.6% | +2.8 pp | 3.40 |
| Piast Gliwice | 30.9% | 29.2% | +1.7 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock to score | 80.4% | 79.2% | +1.3 pp | 1.24 |
| Wisła Płock not to score | 19.6% | 20.8% | −1.3 pp | 5.11 |
| Piast Gliwice to score | 76.1% | 72.3% | +3.8 pp | 1.31 |
| Piast Gliwice not to score | 23.9% | 27.7% | −3.8 pp | 4.19 |
| Both teams to score | 62.9% | 58.9% | +4.0 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.1% | 41.1% | −4.0 pp | 2.70 |
| Wisła Płock 2+ goals | 45.8% | 48.5% | −2.7 pp | 2.18 |
| Wisła Płock at most 1 goal | 54.2% | 51.5% | +2.7 pp | 1.84 |
| Piast Gliwice 2+ goals | 39.1% | 37.5% | +1.6 pp | 2.56 |
| Piast Gliwice at most 1 goal | 60.9% | 62.5% | −1.6 pp | 1.64 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | 78.3% | +3.2 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.5% | 21.7% | −3.2 pp | 5.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | 56.3% | −1.0 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 43.7% | +1.0 pp | 2.24 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Piast Gliwice sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 14 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.