Piast Gliwice 1:2 Pogoń Szczecin: xG & match report · Ekstraklasa

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 12:15

Full time

Match report · Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice Home 0.87 xG · 12 shots

Pogoń Szczecin Away 1.43 xG · 9 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Piast Gliwice were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Pogoń Szczecin won 2–1. The biggest difference was Piast Gliwice's attack: 0.87 xG against 1.53 projected (−0.66).

Goals

26' Jordi Sánchez Pogoń Szczecin · 0.24 xG chance 0–1
31' Samuel Ntamack Ndimba Piast Gliwice · 0.20 xG chance 1–1
57' Darko Churlinov Pogoń Szczecin · 0.35 xG chance 1–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Piast Gliwice: 42%
Draw: 30%
Pogoń Szczecin: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Piast Gliwice 1.53 0.87 -0.66

Pogoń Szczecin 1.26 1.43 +0.17

Piast Gliwice produced 0.66 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Piast Gliwice Pogoń Szczecin

Shots: 12; 9
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.15
Open play xG: 0.67; 1.31
Set-piece xG: 0.19; 0.08
Penalties: —; —

Piast Gliwice's shots add up to 0.86 xG and Pogoń Szczecin's to 1.39; the published figures are 0.87 and 1.43.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 2.25 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Piast Gliwice
Pogoń Szczecin
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Piast Gliwice

1.26 xG created 1.78 xGA

L 1.06 created, 3.12 conceded against Lech Poznań
L 1.16 created, 1.68 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
D 1.10 created, 0.98 conceded against Legia Warszawa
W 1.57 created, 1.01 conceded against Motor Lublin
W 0.87 created, 1.55 conceded against GKS Katowice
W 1.79 created, 2.33 conceded against Radomiak Radom

Pogoń Szczecin

1.56 xG created 1.20 xGA

W 0.93 created, 1.15 conceded against Cracovia
W 2.35 created, 0.92 conceded against Motor Lublin
D 1.32 created, 0.86 conceded against Wisła Kraków
D 0.82 created, 1.37 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
D 1.99 created, 1.67 conceded against Wisła Płock
W 1.95 created, 1.20 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Piast Gliwice: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Piast Gliwice against Pogoń Szczecin before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.40	+0.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Piast Gliwice	41.6%	40.6%	+1.1 pp	2.40
Draw	29.6%	26.8%	+2.7 pp	3.38
Pogoń Szczecin	28.8%	32.6%	−3.8 pp	3.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	62.1%	57.7%	+4.4 pp	1.61
Both teams not to score	37.9%	42.3%	−4.4 pp	2.64
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	76.9%	+3.9 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	23.1%	−3.9 pp	5.23
Over 2.5 goals	54.3%	56.0%	−1.7 pp	1.84
Under 2.5 goals	45.7%	44.0%	+1.7 pp	2.19

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Piast Gliwice sample: 20 matches
Pogoń Szczecin sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.