Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:00
20d 16h to kick-offHamKam – Rosenborg BK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- HamKam
- 26%
- Draw
- 31%
- Rosenborg BK
- 43%
| HamKam | Draw | Rosenborg BK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.84 | 3.25 | 2.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Rosenborg BK
43% Rosenborg BK to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 15th
- Rosenborg BK attack v HamKam defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 15th
- Rosenborg BK defence v HamKam attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs -1.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.10 – 1.44
- HamKam v Rosenborg BK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | HamKam | Rosenborg BK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 14th | (better) 1.56 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.66 · 12th | (better) 1.42 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.52 · 13th | (better) +0.14 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.05 · 13th | (better) 1.52 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.12 | (better) +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Rosenborg BK clean sheet
- 30%
- Rosenborg BK 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 0:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- HamKam sample
- 20 matches
- Rosenborg BK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · HamKam
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Rosenborg BK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.