xgEdge

Expected goals

NEC Nijmegen expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eredivisie · after 7 matches · updated 4 Oct

NEC Nijmegen's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eredivisie 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NEC Nijmegen xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.60 xG per match
#8/18
Attack (xG per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 PSV Eindhoven 2.87
#2 Feyenoord 2.76
#3 AFC Ajax 2.65
#4 AZ Alkmaar 2.55
#5 FC Twente 2.28
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.91
#7 Sparta Rotterdam 1.64
#8 NEC Nijmegen 1.60
#9 FC Groningen 1.54
#10 FC Utrecht 1.41
#11 SC Cambuur 1.35
#12 Excelsior 1.35
#13 Willem II Tilburg 1.29
#14 SC Heerenveen 1.26
#15 SC Telstar 1.09
#16 Fortuna Sittard 0.97
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.94
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.90
League avg
1.69
Total
11.19 7 matches
Defence
1.92 xGA per match
#10/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Twente 0.75
#2 Feyenoord 0.80
#3 AZ Alkmaar 0.95
#4 AFC Ajax 1.25
#5 SC Heerenveen 1.36
#6 PSV Eindhoven 1.37
#7 Excelsior 1.44
#8 Go Ahead Eagles 1.63
#9 ADO Den Haag 1.90
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.92
#11 FC Groningen 1.93
#12 SC Cambuur 2.04
#13 SC Telstar 2.05
#14 PEC Zwolle 2.06
#15 Sparta Rotterdam 2.10
#16 FC Utrecht 2.11
#17 Willem II Tilburg 2.28
#18 Fortuna Sittard 2.42
League avg
1.69
Total
13.42 7 matches
xG difference
-0.32 xGD per match
#9/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Feyenoord +1.96
#2 AZ Alkmaar +1.60
#3 FC Twente +1.53
#4 PSV Eindhoven +1.51
#5 AFC Ajax +1.40
#6 Go Ahead Eagles +0.28
#7 Excelsior -0.09
#8 SC Heerenveen -0.10
#9 NEC Nijmegen -0.32
#10 FC Groningen -0.39
#11 Sparta Rotterdam -0.46
#12 SC Cambuur -0.68
#13 FC Utrecht -0.70
#14 SC Telstar -0.96
#15 Willem II Tilburg -0.99
#16 ADO Den Haag -1.00
#17 PEC Zwolle -1.12
#18 Fortuna Sittard -1.46
League avg
0.00
Total
-2.23 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.18 xPts per match
#10/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Feyenoord 2.49
#2 FC Twente 2.43
#3 AZ Alkmaar 2.30
#4 AFC Ajax 2.20
#5 PSV Eindhoven 2.18
#6 Go Ahead Eagles 1.59
#7 Excelsior 1.31
#8 FC Groningen 1.28
#9 SC Heerenveen 1.28
#10 NEC Nijmegen 1.18
#11 Sparta Rotterdam 1.15
#12 FC Utrecht 1.14
#13 SC Cambuur 0.91
#14 ADO Den Haag 0.85
#15 SC Telstar 0.79
#16 Willem II Tilburg 0.79
#17 PEC Zwolle 0.73
#18 Fortuna Sittard 0.72
League avg
1.41
Total
8.24 vs 8 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

NEC Nijmegen's underlying numbers sit close to the Eredivisie average. They rank #9 for xG difference at -0.32 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 12 goals are 0.81 above 11.19 xG, while 8 points are 0.24 below 8.24 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
12 11.19 +0.81 scored 0.81 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
13 13.42 -0.42 conceded 0.42 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
8 8.24 -0.24 0.24 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NEC Nijmegen are 0.81 goals above their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at +1.78, against Excelsior on Tue 08/09.

Goals
12
xG
11.19
Gap
+0.81
Sat 08/08 Sat 15/08 Sat 29/08 Sat 05/09 Tue 08/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -1.15 -0.14 +0.88 +1.14 +1.78 +0.85 +0.81 -1.15 +1.01 +1.02 +0.26 +0.64 -0.93 -0.04 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NEC Nijmegen: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 08/08 SC Telstar 1 2.15 -1.15 -1.15
Sat 15/08 Willem II Tilburg 4 2.99 +1.01 -0.14
Sat 29/08 PEC Zwolle 3 1.98 +1.02 +0.88
Sat 05/09 Feyenoord 1 0.74 +0.26 +1.14
Tue 08/09 Excelsior 2 1.36 +0.64 +1.78
Sat 12/09 SC Cambuur 0 0.93 -0.93 +0.85
Sun 20/09 Go Ahead Eagles 1 1.04 -0.04 +0.81

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

NEC Nijmegen xG trend

Current form -0.49 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against SC Cambuur on Sat 12/09 (-2.27).

npxG · last 6
1.51
npxGA · last 6
2.00
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.43 Sat 08/08 +1.43 Sat 15/08 +0.00 Sat 29/08 -0.37 Sat 05/09 -0.45 Tue 08/09 -2.27 Sat 12/09 -1.27 Sun 20/09 -0.36 season avg
NEC Nijmegen: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 08/08 SC Telstar 1.89 1.46 +0.43 +0.43
Sat 15/08 Willem II Tilburg 2.99 1.56 +1.43 +0.93
Sat 29/08 PEC Zwolle 1.98 1.98 +0.00 +0.62
Sat 05/09 Feyenoord 0.74 1.11 -0.37 +0.37
Tue 08/09 Excelsior 1.36 1.81 -0.45 +0.21
Sat 12/09 SC Cambuur 0.93 3.20 -2.27 -0.21
Sun 20/09 Go Ahead Eagles 1.04 2.31 -1.27 -0.36

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.56 npxG and 1.92 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 15 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.19 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 13 hardest of 18 in Eredivisie
−0.05 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.19 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 15 hardest of 18

  1. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  2. SC Cambuur Away −0.29
  3. Excelsior Home −0.16
  4. Feyenoord Home +0.87
  5. PEC Zwolle Away −0.54
  6. Willem II Tilburg Away −0.55
  7. SC Telstar Home −0.51

Last 5

−0.05 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 13 hardest of 18

  1. Go Ahead Eagles Home −0.13
  2. SC Cambuur Away −0.29
  3. Excelsior Home −0.16
  4. Feyenoord Home +0.87
  5. PEC Zwolle Away −0.54

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NEC Nijmegen shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. NEC Nijmegen take 15.1 shots a match (league 15.0) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.11), =7 in Eredivisie for volume and #12 for quality. 58% of their shots come from inside the box (league 66%), and set pieces produce 10% of their npxG (league 18%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.1 shots per match
=7/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AFC Ajax 24.7
#2 Feyenoord 22.3
#3 FC Twente 21.6
#4 PSV Eindhoven 21.0
#5 AZ Alkmaar 19.4
#6 SC Heerenveen 16.0
=7 Go Ahead Eagles 15.1
=7 NEC Nijmegen 15.1
#9 FC Groningen 15.0
#10 Sparta Rotterdam 13.1
=11 ADO Den Haag 11.9
=11 SC Cambuur 11.9
=11 Willem II Tilburg 11.9
#14 Excelsior 11.3
#15 FC Utrecht 10.9
#16 PEC Zwolle 10.6
#17 Fortuna Sittard 10.1
#18 SC Telstar 7.9
League avg
15.0
Total
106 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#12/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 AZ Alkmaar 0.13
#2 Go Ahead Eagles 0.13
#3 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#4 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#5 Excelsior 0.12
#6 FC Utrecht 0.12
#7 Feyenoord 0.12
#8 SC Cambuur 0.11
#9 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#10 AFC Ajax 0.11
#11 SC Telstar 0.10
#12 NEC Nijmegen 0.10
#13 FC Groningen 0.10
#14 FC Twente 0.09
#15 Fortuna Sittard 0.09
#16 PEC Zwolle 0.09
#17 SC Heerenveen 0.08
#18 ADO Den Haag 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
10.93 npxG from 106 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.6 shots per match
#6/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AZ Alkmaar 8.1
=2 AFC Ajax 9.6
=2 Feyenoord 9.6
#4 FC Twente 10.0
#5 PSV Eindhoven 10.1
#6 NEC Nijmegen 11.6
#7 FC Groningen 15.1
=8 SC Cambuur 15.9
=8 SC Heerenveen 15.9
=10 ADO Den Haag 16.1
=10 Excelsior 16.1
#12 Go Ahead Eagles 16.6
#13 SC Telstar 17.9
#14 Sparta Rotterdam 18.0
#15 FC Utrecht 18.6
#16 Willem II Tilburg 19.9
#17 Fortuna Sittard 20.3
#18 PEC Zwolle 20.4
League avg
15.0
Total
81 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.17 npxGA per shot
#18/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eredivisie, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 FC Twente 0.06
#2 Feyenoord 0.08
#3 Excelsior 0.09
#4 SC Heerenveen 0.09
#5 Go Ahead Eagles 0.09
#6 PEC Zwolle 0.10
#7 FC Utrecht 0.10
#8 SC Telstar 0.11
#9 ADO Den Haag 0.11
#10 SC Cambuur 0.11
#11 Willem II Tilburg 0.11
#12 Fortuna Sittard 0.12
#13 Sparta Rotterdam 0.12
#14 AZ Alkmaar 0.12
#15 FC Groningen 0.12
#16 AFC Ajax 0.13
#17 PSV Eindhoven 0.13
#18 NEC Nijmegen 0.17
League avg
0.11
Total
13.43 npxGA from 81 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

58% inside the box

League avg 66%

From 62 of 106 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

72% allowed inside the box

League avg 66%

From 58 of 81 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

90% open play · 10% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 0.9 of 9.4 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 18% set pieces

From 2.6 of 11.9 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

NEC Nijmegen home and away xG

NEC Nijmegen per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.32 1.97
xGA / match 1.72 2.18
xGD / match -0.40 -0.21
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.07 1.33

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NEC Nijmegen match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Away this season

Matches
3
xG / match
1.97
xGA / match
2.18
xGD / match
-0.21
Points
6 of 9
  1. Sat 12/09 SC Cambuur A xG 0.93 xGA 3.12 xGD -2.19
  2. Sat 29/08 PEC Zwolle A xG 1.98 xGA 1.98 xGD +0.00
  3. Sat 15/08 Willem II Tilburg A xG 2.99 xGA 1.43 xGD +1.56

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.12. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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