Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Willem II Tilburg – AZ Alkmaar
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Willem II Tilburg
- 19%
- Draw
- 24%
- AZ Alkmaar
- 57%
| Willem II Tilburg | Draw | AZ Alkmaar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.34 | 4.09 | 1.76 |
- Total goals
- 3.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans AZ Alkmaar
57% AZ Alkmaar to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 18th
- AZ Alkmaar attack v Willem II Tilburg defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 13th
- AZ Alkmaar defence v Willem II Tilburg attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.58 vs -1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 2.05
- Willem II Tilburg v AZ Alkmaar
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Willem II Tilburg | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.29 · 13th | (better) 2.55 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 2.28 · 17th | (better) 0.95 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.99 · 15th | (better) +1.60 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.79 · 16th | (better) 2.30 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.00 | (better) +1.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- AZ Alkmaar clean sheet
- 28%
- AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.4%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 8.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Willem II Tilburg sample
- 7 matches
- AZ Alkmaar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Willem II Tilburg
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · AZ Alkmaar
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- Willem II Tilburg has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.